US

Stimulus and Stabilizers

Question A:

Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Seems like small businesses, which are in greatest need, haven't received much support, only large firms have. More of the same isn't good.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
At this point, the money would be better spent supporting state budgets. Also, CARES needs some tweaking!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The CARES Act programs are not well designed. Despite that, going bigger and earlier is better for the reasons stated in the question.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Preserving powder for second wave may make sense. Aiding states now could be smart.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Uninteresting to think about a further program structured like CARES when the next program could instead be structured better.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There is concern that the extra $600 per week in UI benefits distorts decisions about returning to work.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I would prefer a program that targeted less wealthy individuals and (maybe) small businesses rather than big companies.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
True IF it is sensibly constructed. We need to reduce uncertainty. It should be focused on immediate crisis.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
depends on the path of the disease, too many unknowns
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
A small program seems unlikely to match up to the economic losses, which are enormous.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Need more state and local government support than I'm CARES Act.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Aid now will keep economic institutions and productive capacity intact, quickening subsequent recovery that will otherwise be more difficult
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
"Substantial" is in the eye of the beholder, of course.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
CARES Act was very poorly targeted towards avoiding long-term economic damage and promoting a stronger recovery.
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I am worried about how these programs are being administered.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
But important to make sure that democratic participation in policymaking isn't completely sidelined.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
While I favor more reliance on rules, the two approaches are not mutually exclusive. Extreme events like Covid require a tailored response.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Automatic stabilizers work immediately and are not subject to dead-of-night lobbyist insertions and last-minute legislative bungles
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I'm not sufficiently knowledgeable on this issue.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
No doubt smart rules could in principle be better than congressional discretion but who would create and enforce the rule? Congress.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Have you turned on C-SPAN lately?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
UI benefits are effectively indexed to conditions. Plus other need-based programs plus discretionary progs to smooth disposable inc well.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The problem with such a rule is that the response is insensitive to the specific shock: a pandemic differs from a standard depression.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Some automaticity would impose helpful discipline but it is impossible to foresee all circumstances so some discretion is needed.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The safety net should be reliable, particularly when needed the most.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
figuring out the level of benefits that would be appropriate would be much harder, but turning things on could be done mechanically.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Discretionary policy responses are counterproductively sluggish and too often politically manipulated.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Should be "increases or decreases." How would be changed to become more responsive would matter.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Congress hates to make stuff like this automatic because it means they lose the power to be heroes.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History