Imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
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65%
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Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
76%
24%
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Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
It will help some Americans and hurt others. But the overall benefits are likely to be quite limited, and losses larger.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Simple answer is no! Complex answer is that this _could be_ a strategic gambit in a longer game that deters abuse of free trade agreements.
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Effects will vary among people, but I expect overall losses will exceed gains.
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
SMACK. SMACK [punching self in face] SMACK. SMACK.
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
A robust result is that free trade increases national income. The cases where this is not true are rare and hard to spot.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
They may help SOME Americans SIGNIFANTLY but the number is small and the costs to others will far exceed the gains.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Steel and alumin are intermediate inputs, so this broadly harmful
-see background information here |
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I thought we had learned our lesson with Smoot-Hawley
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
A small number of people, engaged in steel and aluminum production, will benefit from these tariffs, at great cost to many others.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
In net we want more trade not less. This is unlikely to help and runs the risk of starting a trade war. SAD
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
It will improve some Americans welfare, & hurt many others. On balance it's a very costly way to help those who gain.
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