US

State-run Lotteries

Taking into account the revenues, consumer surplus, purchasing patterns by income, and possible consumer biases, state-run lotteries (such as Powerball and scratch-off games) increase social welfare.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
They are regressive taxes. Only excuse might be otherwise the private sector will offer them and capture the revenues. Yet not convincing
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
I think people's preferences are often locally convex, so they may actually want lotteries. On the other hand probabilities are confusing
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obviously there are real issues here regarding addiction, progressivity, etc.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Such lotteries exploit behavioral gambling, causing, in effect, a regressive tax. Not welfare increasing, given alternative funding sources.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Addiction and consumer bias could mean that the product decreases welfare. But does it crowd out even worse gambling and associated crime?
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Welfare impacts (+ & -) from state lotteries are probably much smaller than in past due to proliferation of alternative ways to gamble
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I'm inclined to think that government should not exploit the public's vulnerability to gambling, but I'm also aware of counter-arguments.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
The answer requires still-undone estimation of elasticities, incidence, & g.e. effects. Not to mention an SWF. Just silly to be certain.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Lotteries were oversold when introduced but there is a demand for this product and little evidence that consumers are involuntarily harmed.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Kearney "to what extent [is] the increase in consumer utility and public revenue offsets the associated social costs" still not sure we know
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Can't say I have a strong view here, but people choose whether to participate, and the revenues are used for schools, roads...
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Among the worst of social policies.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lotteries are a regressive tax. The welfare effect depends on your social welfare function; for mine regressive taxes reduce welfare.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
People seem to enjoy participating, which is more than one can say about taxes. But biases and addiction reduce my confidence about the net
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
If there were no state-run lotteries, more private institutions would enable possibly-biased consumers to gamble
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
States giving themselves a monopoly in this business is bad for sure, but if the alternative is prohibition is that better?
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History