US

Security Screening

The former head of the Transportation Security Administration is correct in arguing that randomizing airport “security procedures encountered by passengers (additional upper-torso pat-downs, a thorough bag search, a swab test of carry-ons, etc.), while not subjecting everyone to the full gamut" would make it "much harder for terrorists to learn how to evade security procedures."

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Giving TSA officers discretion is a good idea; simply randomizing some procedures does not prevent terrorists learning
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
I am not sure that this is an economics question! I can't quantify the speed of terrorist learning....
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Would like to see some evidence. Theory is not clear on rules vs. discretion.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
"Randomization" is rarely random in practice, often for good reasons. If the search intensity is the same, how is it safer to search fewer?
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Then why not send mutliple terrorists to a flight? A subset would make it randomly through. Profiling is more effective than randomization.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It would probably make it harder for a terrorist to learn the procedure being used but it would make getting through the system easier.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
so long as terrorists aren't too nuts to be deterred
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
would full set of potential procedures be public? frequency of testing matters too. would reduce travel hassle but could increase risks
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I don't think economists have any professional expertise in this area. Anti-terrorist policy should be evidence-based, not Aristotelian.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Unconditional randomization is dumb. Randomization CONDITIONAL on a person's characteristics w enormous penalties for dangerous items: yes.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
This won't stop terrorists who are both intelligent and suicidal, as were the 9/11 guys.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Predictability does seem unwise, but I am uncertain about the most efficient ways to deliver safety.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Too complex an issue to speak to without having researched it more thoroughly. I don't feel that I know the data or arguments.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Seems consistent with many studies that emphasize random audits as a valuable way to catch or deter bad behavior.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
While this sounds plausible, I don't feel I know enough to have an opinion.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This depends on the details. If the methods are secret then using them rarely will make them harder to discern in which case, yes.
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Is there any theory or evidence on this point? Is it an issue about which economists have any special insight?
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Of course mixed strategy is better. Most of what TSA does is just barn door closing or for show. Reinforcing the cockpit door did a lot.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History