US

Science, Technology and Immigration

Question A:

Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Labor demand curves are generally downward sloping
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Highly skilled researchers create positive spillovers and make the overall environment more productive, which can boost other skilled worker
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Two mechanisms- 2nd is to increase demand for the complementary workers.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The short-run story is supply-versus-demand. In the long run, high-skill immigration could perhaps increase demand for high-skill workers,
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
probably not by much given the magnitude of the new flow vs size of existing stock but directionally, yes
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This seems very likely. The immigrants are chiefly substitutes for the US scientists. However, some might be complements, offsetting this.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Scientists could be complements or substitutes
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Any effect would be tiny at any politically feasible level of such immigration.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
More immigrants exert downward pressure, but create more jobs that create upward pressure.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
One would expect a temporary decrease in the premium, but it is not obvious that the effect would be significant or long-lasting.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Obvious effects by shifting supply; however, this will also affect where production takes place, so demand shifts as well
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Quarterly question aimed at weeding out respondents who are asleep or don't believe in supply and demand. Or course magnitudes unknown.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
"Temporary" is key. Hard to see anything else in the short run. But long run effects could be positive even for these workers.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Much U.S. wealth comes from innovation, and foreign-born STEM workers are a huge contributor to that efffort
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Labor of this type is a key factor input that is apparently not in plentiful supply. More of it would likely raise per-capita GDP.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
see under 'History, American'
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
A simple free trade argument suggest that the U.S. would gain overall. The problem is that there may be losers as well as winners.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Statement requires certain complementarities on which evidence is so far from strong & precise that certainty would be silly.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Complementarities with other factors, including labor, imply that they would see demand increase.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
More highly skilled immigrants here, more jobs here, more income here, generate more jobs in services and more innovation.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The ability to bring the best and the brightest from throughout the world to our economy is a great resource.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Disclosure: I benefited from a policy that allowed Universities to hire foreign nationals with advanced degrees to their faculty.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Most other workers are complements to those with advanced degrees, hence this will raise the demand for their skills
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Clearly high skill labor increases economic growth though not equally.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History