US

Russia Sanctions

Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This is true for limited sanctions being imposed on Russia. Much more comprehensive sanctions as in South Africa or Iran would be effective.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Not a good experiment, but sanctions appear effective sometimes, e.g., Iran, South Africa.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I think a part of what made Iran come to bargaining table has to do with the sanctions, though I have no way to prove this.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sanctions bite often only with a long delay and the effectiveness depends on the circumanstances. (South Africa and Iran vs. North Korea)
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I waver between uncertain and agree. Much depends on the form of the sanctions, the behavior they're designed to deter, etc.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
often do little, but can deter if significant and applied effectively
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
"Course of action" is vague. Sanctions & their threat alter the calculus by raising costs & thus affect decisions. but not a cure all
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Not acquainted with the evidence.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
My sense is that economic sanctions were important in ending apartheid in South Africa, and are leading Iran to negotiate with the West.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Depends on country, its trade, its politics. Also, sanctions that are initially apparently ineffective can gradually undermine a regime.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Sanctions are signals. Putin would be surprised if NATO said nothing about Crimea, and might read it as a green light to be more aggressive.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hard to design & sustain in a way that ends up only harming the offender. Better to boycott the world cup in Russia +embarass FIFA too!
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
It surely works sometimes (e.g. against the Apartheid regime). Restrictions on Odious Debt could also help, though NA for Russia today.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
I'm no expert on this, but Int. Relations literature seems to conclude sanctions often don't work that well.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Referring to economic or political sanctions.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
We have evidence both ways - sanctions of Myanmar and North Korea have accomplished little, while sanctions on Iran may be useful.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I'm sure there are exceptions, but not many.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Effectiveness must depend on the openness of the target economy and the uniformity of the application of sanctions
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I don't trust my memory to run a mental regression with sanctions on the right hand side. In principle, there should be sanctions that work
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The evidence is that sanctions can be effective, particularly when the goal is limited.
-see background information here