US

Russia Sanctions

Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
11%
0%
29%
29%
22%
0%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
40%
33%
27%
0%
Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This is true for limited sanctions being imposed on Russia. Much more comprehensive sanctions as in South Africa or Iran would be effective.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Not a good experiment, but sanctions appear effective sometimes, e.g., Iran, South Africa.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I think a part of what made Iran come to bargaining table has to do with the sanctions, though I have no way to prove this.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sanctions bite often only with a long delay and the effectiveness depends on the circumanstances. (South Africa and Iran vs. North Korea)
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I waver between uncertain and agree. Much depends on the form of the sanctions, the behavior they're designed to deter, etc.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
often do little, but can deter if significant and applied effectively
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
"Course of action" is vague. Sanctions & their threat alter the calculus by raising costs & thus affect decisions. but not a cure all
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Not acquainted with the evidence.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
My sense is that economic sanctions were important in ending apartheid in South Africa, and are leading Iran to negotiate with the West.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Depends on country, its trade, its politics. Also, sanctions that are initially apparently ineffective can gradually undermine a regime.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Sanctions are signals. Putin would be surprised if NATO said nothing about Crimea, and might read it as a green light to be more aggressive.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hard to design & sustain in a way that ends up only harming the offender. Better to boycott the world cup in Russia +embarass FIFA too!
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
It surely works sometimes (e.g. against the Apartheid regime). Restrictions on Odious Debt could also help, though NA for Russia today.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
I'm no expert on this, but Int. Relations literature seems to conclude sanctions often don't work that well.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Referring to economic or political sanctions.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
We have evidence both ways - sanctions of Myanmar and North Korea have accomplished little, while sanctions on Iran may be useful.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I'm sure there are exceptions, but not many.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Effectiveness must depend on the openness of the target economy and the uniformity of the application of sanctions
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I don't trust my memory to run a mental regression with sanctions on the right hand side. In principle, there should be sanctions that work
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The evidence is that sanctions can be effective, particularly when the goal is limited.
-see background information here