US

Roe V. Wade Reversal

Question A:

Laws restricting access to abortion are likely to have a negative impact on women's educational attainment, labor market participation, and earnings, particularly those in households of lower socio-economic status.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

States that ban abortion are likely to suffer significant economic losses.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Poor woman most likely to have unintended pregnancies, will be denied abortions. Multiple studies show abortion turn-aways -> poverty
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
There is a substantial amount of evidence cited in the economist's amicus brief linked here.
-see background information here
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
question is too narrow. people maximize welfare, not GDP, & these outcomes miss non-market ones like dignity that determine well-being
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Inclined to agree but some offsetting factors (e.g. child qualifies one for some education benefits) & most evidence based on another era.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
See the evidence summarized in the economists amicus brief before SCOTUS.
-see background information here
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
This will be true if the abortion pill is outlawed, but not as likely if women switch to the abortion pill.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
HIgh degree of political unpredictability clouds the answer.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The evidence is overwhelming that on average abortion restrictions have these adverse effects.
-see background information here

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Unclear whether negative effects are large enough to be detectable/significant at the state level, and would depend on migration responses.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Negative effects through reduction in education & labor supply and through migration decisions. Size uncertain.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hurting poor women and families likely doesn't hurt growth in the short-term -- which may be why politician don't hesitate to do it
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
It would be hard to disagree with this statement if one agrees with the statement of Part A.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Some economic losses, but significant? (Future ASSA meetings are likely to relocate.)
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Depends on what "significant" means
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
If people (simply) perceive these states as unfriendly to female careers & autonomy, they will lose skilled workers and top intellects.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Economic impact likely to be low, but Donohue and Levitt's work implies a significant increase in crime in the future.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
lots of work arounds, e.g. firms in texas that are paying for people to travel to seek care. too early to tell the medium term impact
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Will be swamped by other factors. More sorting but not big impacts.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Firms have increasingly based location decisions on social issues; giving an effect; it remains to be seen how important this will be.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Not sure about “significant.”
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History