US

Robots and Artificial Intelligence

Question A:

Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Recent research finds negative employment effects from industrial robots. Effects of AI and more mature robotics tech could be different.
-see background information here
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
It's not impossible, but I'm not so far seeing the evidence that "that this time is different."
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Not because it must, but because the policies needed to prevent it will not be forthcoming,.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Lots of jobs will be left requiring compassion, communication and intuition.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
key is the length of adjustment, recent research, including Acemoglu and Restrepo, suggest meaningful periods of time.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
So far, the effects seem to be small-the labor force has shrunk only a bit. But the future could see much more shrinkage.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
There will be jobs in health and care service.Workers will need training. Unemployment may rise initially, but maybe not long-term.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Unemployment insurance benefits will be used to facilitate longer job search spells in the job market with fewer opportunities.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
they will destroy a lot of jobs and will create many too. hard to know if the net, long-term effect will be substantial
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Yes, with significant uncertainty. How quickly jobs will be lost and new jobs will be created is hard to forecast.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
For at least the next 20 years. After that, depends on evolution of AI etc.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But with appropriate institutions and retraining, the effect on unemployment could be significantly mitigated.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Historical evidence suggests that this increase will be relatively short-run.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Holding fixed institutions, wages and labor force participation will fall for some workers, but unemployment will not increase
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I don't understand the premise. We create tools but no one learns how to use them?
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Negative wage effects on at least some workers and productivity improvements are likely. Politics is the real constraint on redistribution
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Panelist meant to strongly agree (question misread). Though these techs will almost surely ↑ GDP, losers almost surely won’t be compensated.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Having a job matters even if it does not change earnings. I wonder what mechanisms will keep the population engaged and emotionally rewarded
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Not that they will. "Could be"
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
"could"-- yes but is a favorite academic ? of unclear real world relevance- benefits from big dislocations are not usually redistributed
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
There are already some bad signs about the shrinking labor force. Those not in the LF are unhappy and inclined to opiods.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The pie is bigger and so monetary compensation is possible. But people may lose self-esteem if they no longer have a"good" job.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
The key word is "could". It is unclear how effective the political institutions will be in making this happen. I am pessimistic.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
But i am skeptical this will be pursued much in the US, witness the program on trade adjustment assistance
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The potential benefits are large. Will they be used to compensate for job loss? May be determined more by politics than economics.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Slightly weird question. Impacts are + and -, with net being positive. Hard to know where gross job losses fit into the + and -, however.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It is (alas) by no means clear that we can muster the political will to make the appropriate compensations.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
But, of course, it is not likely that those benefits will in fact be used to compensate the losers.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But the caveat is that compensating these workers will further reduce their employment
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
The key word is "could". In the recent years the gains from tech have not trickled down much in terms of money.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
...but three compensation is very unlikely to be paid for most of those who lose their jobs.