Robots and Artificial Intelligence

Question A:

Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Historical evidence doesn't make me too pessimistic but some adjustment to labor market policies might be necessary to avoid transition cost
Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
The Graduate Institute Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Some advanced countries have adequate institutions to facilitate the transition and a demography foreboding a shortage of workers.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The problem may be that wages are low or that work is unsatisfactory, but not long term unemployment. Labor force participation may decline.
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Must be true in the short run, unless it takes place in the context of expanding aggregate demand, which would facilitate reabsoption
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
robots may be accompanied by other innovations that can abosorb the workers laid off, but exent of this is uncertain
Hellwig
Martin Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
the answer depends a lot on what alternative employment (at possibly lower wages) is available.
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Speed of innovation quite unclear; suppressing labour market and training response loads the question in direction of unemployment.
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
We will see lots of changes, not only robots coming in. But also very different ways of working, leading also to shorter employment spells.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Perhaps unemployment could rise in the short run but employment will respond to labor supply: there will be jobs.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
History&prior evidence disagree. Some job polarization&lots of complementarity. Could AI&robots be different? Yes, but so far very uncertain
-see background information here
-see background information here
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The outcome will depend on the institutional structure. More flexible labor markets will allow a faster adjustment
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Some workers will be displaced, some will retrain, the new technology is likely to diffuse slowly, especially in service industries.
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Job training needs to change
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Jobs will be destroyed in some sectors but created in other sectors. Sectoral shifts are common without large unemployment hikes
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Unemployment depends on macro policies.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hard to predict impact of technology on jobs with our current levels of knowledge. Innovation often has positive as well as negative effects
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Aghion
Philippe Aghion
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
It seems pretty clear that the potential gains would outweigh the losses.
Baldwin
Richard Baldwin
The Graduate Institute Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
In theory yes. However the workers want jobs, not transfers. Very difficult during the transition.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Compensating the losers will require fiscal adaptations in order to improve the scope for redistribution
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
It all depends how the ownership of the AI technology is distributed. AI by itself may be very effective at concentrating ownership.
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
True in theory. In practice, it will depend on the transfers system in place and other elements determined by the political process
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hellwig
Martin Hellwig
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The answer depends on how the various frictions in the labour market play out. No general answer is available.
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Absolutely. But mind the term "could". Whether or not it happens depends critically on fundamental adjustments of our societal architecture.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
If it is profitable to employ robots it is very likely more efficient. So almost by definition they increase production efficiency.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The key point is whether there is political will to redistribute these benefits
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Assuming firms generally make tech investments when NPV positive, gains should be large enough. But not clear that the transfers take place.
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Again - depends on the institutional structure
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
I agree in principle, though compensation rarely occurs in practice and would require Nordic levels of income support and retraining.
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Kaldor-Hicks: seriously?
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Higher productivity means a bigger pie
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
That compensation is possible in principle does not mean that it is likely to take place in practice.
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
There will be substantial productivity gains but government needs to take action to destribute them across negatively affetced groups
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The question is not whether they could be compensated, but whether they will. Experience suggests not.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Technology expands the economic pie, so definitely offers chances to share greater wealth
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History