US

Robots

Question A:

Advancing automation has not historically reduced employment in the United States.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Information technology and automation are a central reason why median wages have been stagnant in the US over the past decade, despite rising productivity.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Temporarily yes. Over the long run, no. Labor force participation has risen throughout most of the 20th century.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
It is not easy to find evidence one way or the other that it did not shift the aggregate labor demand curve down.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
new employment opportunities opened up e.g. in the service sector.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Over the long run, that is true
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
There has been temporary displacement but displaced workers have found jobs elsewhere, as theory might predict
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hard to be certain b/c a GE issue, but little econ history supports mechanization having reduced employment.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Productivity increases options. Employment becomes more beneficial, but it is irrelevant if people choose to work less.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Automation has increased greatly over last 100 years. Employment has increased. Labor participation rates have varied.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
To a first order approximation.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Really would say unemployment. Otherwise need to incorporate income effects.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Automation can cause significant displacement and can require costly adjustments, but has not reduced long-run employment.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Automation has not reduced net employment, but some workers have lost their jobs due to automation
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
If this had been true over the last two centuries, almost no one would be working anymore.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Mixed effects across the distribution of skills
-see background information here

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Technology and trade/globalization are probably two largest factors. Would also include deunionization.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
There are so many other factors including trade (including in services).
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Winner-takes-it-all technologies are more prevelant than only in IT. Moreover, globalization (containers), ... are also important factors.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Rising health care costs may actually be more important for the median worker.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
They are A reason, among others. And a reason is not the same as a result; there could have been offsetting policy/policies.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Question is too broad.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Stagnant education levels and the financial crisis are almost certainly culprits. Work on assigning shares will go on for a long time.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Unskilled jobs have been lost which may well be a factor, although not the only one, behind stagant median income and increasing inequality
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Skill biased tech probably a cause of flat median wages,but there are MANY other causes. GE problems like this cannot be sorted definitively
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It may have a short-run impact but there is no reason to believe that it is permanent.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
IT and automation have helped the "top 1%." Not clear what that has done to median relative to financial crisis, government policy, etc.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Many other factors going on.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Trade is likely also important for median wages.
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The wage distribution has expanded and compressed over long periods. Technology is probably, involved, but it is unclear exactly how.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History