Question A:
Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
23%
6%
0%
6%
29%
31%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
10%
32%
49%
9%
Question B:
Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
23%
6%
0%
0%
27%
35%
8%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
29%
53%
18%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends significantly on the country and what exactly the money would be spent on in both public and private cases.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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efficiency of public spending in R&D is doubtful
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I believe in the direct plus indirect benefit of basic research, which is more likely to be public rather than private R&D.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Key Q: Is public RD complement or substitute? Evidence weakly favors former, esp @ higher aggregation & more general invstm. Not conclusive.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In principle publicly funding R&D can respond better to social priorities and internalize spillovers. Doing so in practice is a challenge
-see background information here |
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Public R&D might well be better directed but if near optimal to start with, private R&D externalities could do more good at the margin
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not an easy question. Private R&D more likely to spent in zero-sum competitions for market share and establishing dominant market positions.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on what public "investment" consists of, even with negative interest rates
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Private research tends to spent on rich world lifestyle medical problems while public research can focus on deadly diseases like TB.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stronger public regulation (e.g. on pricing and accounting transparency) with private investment may be a better combination
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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fundamental medical research in probably better curried out at public centers
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Public R&D may have positive second round effects in the form of private R&D, whereas the opposite is less likely to happen.
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, evidence tends to favor complementarity, but difficult to measure. Complementarity appears stronger for basic research.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The same superiority in principle, and problems of implementation in practive, arise as for (A)
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Similarly, much of the benefit of private medical R&D goes to profits made by drug producers.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I have no idea of the ROI of each channel
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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