Question A:
Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
23%
6%
0%
6%
29%
31%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
10%
32%
49%
9%
Question B:
Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
23%
6%
0%
0%
27%
35%
8%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
29%
53%
18%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends significantly on the country and what exactly the money would be spent on in both public and private cases.
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![]() Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
efficiency of public spending in R&D is doubtful
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![]() Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
I believe in the direct plus indirect benefit of basic research, which is more likely to be public rather than private R&D.
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![]() Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Key Q: Is public RD complement or substitute? Evidence weakly favors former, esp @ higher aggregation & more general invstm. Not conclusive.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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![]() Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
In principle publicly funding R&D can respond better to social priorities and internalize spillovers. Doing so in practice is a challenge
-see background information here |
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![]() Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Public R&D might well be better directed but if near optimal to start with, private R&D externalities could do more good at the margin
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![]() Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not an easy question. Private R&D more likely to spent in zero-sum competitions for market share and establishing dominant market positions.
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![]() Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on what public "investment" consists of, even with negative interest rates
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![]() Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
Private research tends to spent on rich world lifestyle medical problems while public research can focus on deadly diseases like TB.
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![]() Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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![]() Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
Stronger public regulation (e.g. on pricing and accounting transparency) with private investment may be a better combination
|
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![]() Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
fundamental medical research in probably better curried out at public centers
|
||||
![]() Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
Public R&D may have positive second round effects in the form of private R&D, whereas the opposite is less likely to happen.
|
||||
![]() Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Again, evidence tends to favor complementarity, but difficult to measure. Complementarity appears stronger for basic research.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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![]() Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The same superiority in principle, and problems of implementation in practive, arise as for (A)
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||||
![]() Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
![]() Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
![]() Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
Similarly, much of the benefit of private medical R&D goes to profits made by drug producers.
|
||||
![]() Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
I have no idea of the ROI of each channel
|
||||
![]() Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|