Research and Development

Question A:

Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends significantly on the country and what exactly the money would be spent on in both public and private cases.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
efficiency of public spending in R&D is doubtful
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I believe in the direct plus indirect benefit of basic research, which is more likely to be public rather than private R&D.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Key Q: Is public RD complement or substitute? Evidence weakly favors former, esp @ higher aggregation & more general invstm. Not conclusive.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
In principle publicly funding R&D can respond better to social priorities and internalize spillovers. Doing so in practice is a challenge
-see background information here
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Public R&D might well be better directed but if near optimal to start with, private R&D externalities could do more good at the margin
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Not an easy question. Private R&D more likely to spent in zero-sum competitions for market share and establishing dominant market positions.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
It depends on what public "investment" consists of, even with negative interest rates
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Private research tends to spent on rich world lifestyle medical problems while public research can focus on deadly diseases like TB.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Stronger public regulation (e.g. on pricing and accounting transparency) with private investment may be a better combination
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
fundamental medical research in probably better curried out at public centers
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Public R&D may have positive second round effects in the form of private R&D, whereas the opposite is less likely to happen.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Again, evidence tends to favor complementarity, but difficult to measure. Complementarity appears stronger for basic research.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The same superiority in principle, and problems of implementation in practive, arise as for (A)
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Similarly, much of the benefit of private medical R&D goes to profits made by drug producers.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I have no idea of the ROI of each channel
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History