Question A:
Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
21%
5%
14%
26%
26%
9%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
28%
35%
28%
10%
0%
Question B:
Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
21%
7%
0%
14%
44%
14%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
22%
61%
17%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Significantly unclear. Increase likely, but given limited SR opportunities, much might go to M&A or purchases/inflation of existing assets.
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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there's already $1t sitting domestically on corporate balance sheets not being invested. How would a tax cut to bring back even more help?
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Outside my expertise. I generally favor territorial taxation.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The effects are hard to predict. US corporations might simply repatriate the profits and increase dividends or buy back shares.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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tax benefits would occur but this may not change real economic activity
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A temporary change would produce far more investment in accounting methods for exploiting this than in real capital.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Might pull a little spending forward, but doubt it would genuinely increase it.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I suppose it's possible but the companies with the most overseas profits don't seem cash-constrained.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Significantly" is always a difficult word.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence on 04 tax holiday indicates no increase in domestic investment, R&D or jobs (Dharmapala, Foley and Forbes, J. of Finance 2011)
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to see how a one-year blip in domestic cash would cause a significant change in capital budgets
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Skeptical that we would see much given how much cash companies are already holding.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would also divert investment abroad in a distortionary fashion. Lower corporate taxes would be more powerful.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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lots of evidence both ways on this one. not sure.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see abve
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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US corporations might invest more abroad rather than at home. But comanies might issue equity rather than borrowing, which would be good.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Corporations find ways to bring money home without repatriation. Hodrick, SIEPR, July 2013, "Are U.S. firms really holding too much cash?"
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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not aware of any definitive evidence on this.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even better would be to have no corporate income tax and to have a sufficiently progressive consumption tax, but that's wishful thinking.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not sure about substantial, although domestic and foreign investments are probably complements (Desai et al. AEJ 2009)
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends critically on your model of investment behavior. I don't have one in which I am particularly confident.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, don't see why this would happen.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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