US

Repatriated Profits

Question A:

Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Significantly unclear. Increase likely, but given limited SR opportunities, much might go to M&A or purchases/inflation of existing assets.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
there's already $1t sitting domestically on corporate balance sheets not being invested. How would a tax cut to bring back even more help?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Outside my expertise. I generally favor territorial taxation.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The effects are hard to predict. US corporations might simply repatriate the profits and increase dividends or buy back shares.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
tax benefits would occur but this may not change real economic activity
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
A temporary change would produce far more investment in accounting methods for exploiting this than in real capital.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Might pull a little spending forward, but doubt it would genuinely increase it.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
I suppose it's possible but the companies with the most overseas profits don't seem cash-constrained.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
"Significantly" is always a difficult word.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The evidence on 04 tax holiday indicates no increase in domestic investment, R&D or jobs (Dharmapala, Foley and Forbes, J. of Finance 2011)
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hard to see how a one-year blip in domestic cash would cause a significant change in capital budgets
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Skeptical that we would see much given how much cash companies are already holding.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
This would also divert investment abroad in a distortionary fashion. Lower corporate taxes would be more powerful.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
lots of evidence both ways on this one. not sure.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
see abve
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
US corporations might invest more abroad rather than at home. But comanies might issue equity rather than borrowing, which would be good.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Corporations find ways to bring money home without repatriation. Hodrick, SIEPR, July 2013, "Are U.S. firms really holding too much cash?"
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
not aware of any definitive evidence on this.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Even better would be to have no corporate income tax and to have a sufficiently progressive consumption tax, but that's wishful thinking.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Not sure about substantial, although domestic and foreign investments are probably complements (Desai et al. AEJ 2009)
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Depends critically on your model of investment behavior. I don't have one in which I am particularly confident.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Again, don't see why this would happen.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History