Question A:
Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Significantly unclear. Increase likely, but given limited SR opportunities, much might go to M&A or purchases/inflation of existing assets.
|
||||
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
there's already $1t sitting domestically on corporate balance sheets not being invested. How would a tax cut to bring back even more help?
|
||||
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Outside my expertise. I generally favor territorial taxation.
|
||||
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The effects are hard to predict. US corporations might simply repatriate the profits and increase dividends or buy back shares.
|
||||
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
tax benefits would occur but this may not change real economic activity
|
||||
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
A temporary change would produce far more investment in accounting methods for exploiting this than in real capital.
|
||||
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Might pull a little spending forward, but doubt it would genuinely increase it.
|
||||
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I suppose it's possible but the companies with the most overseas profits don't seem cash-constrained.
|
||||
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
"Significantly" is always a difficult word.
|
||||
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
The evidence on 04 tax holiday indicates no increase in domestic investment, R&D or jobs (Dharmapala, Foley and Forbes, J. of Finance 2011)
|
||||
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to see how a one-year blip in domestic cash would cause a significant change in capital budgets
|
||||
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Skeptical that we would see much given how much cash companies are already holding.
|
||||
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Question B Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This would also divert investment abroad in a distortionary fashion. Lower corporate taxes would be more powerful.
|
||||
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
lots of evidence both ways on this one. not sure.
|
||||
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
see abve
|
||||
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
US corporations might invest more abroad rather than at home. But comanies might issue equity rather than borrowing, which would be good.
|
||||
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Corporations find ways to bring money home without repatriation. Hodrick, SIEPR, July 2013, "Are U.S. firms really holding too much cash?"
|
||||
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
not aware of any definitive evidence on this.
|
||||
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
||||
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Even better would be to have no corporate income tax and to have a sufficiently progressive consumption tax, but that's wishful thinking.
|
||||
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not sure about substantial, although domestic and foreign investments are probably complements (Desai et al. AEJ 2009)
|
||||
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends critically on your model of investment behavior. I don't have one in which I am particularly confident.
|
||||
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
||||
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Again, don't see why this would happen.
|
||||
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|