Question A:

US antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are warranted by the need to foster competition and innovation in the technologies.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Seeking to slow the pace of artificial intelligence use and implementation would be a more effective means of assessing potential harms from the technologies than market deployment and ex post assessment.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The ways in which tech companies suppress competition is not well understood. The more that the competition authorities investigate whether they are doing this the more efficient the operation of the markets will be.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Probably hard to achieve effective enforcement though, with complexity of contractual structures and slow judicial processes…
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
This is less of an anti-trust issue than a natural monopoly problem. Either way, competition is required to keep power and profitability at bay.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
It's good to investigate but aren't these markets strongly contested?

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
This is a very difficult question in my view. For civilian uses letting people use it and see it how it works doesn't seem too problematic. For defence applications it is very worrying but this is not discussed too much.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
I am not sure I know what slowing down the pace of AI use means in practice, and how it can be enforced.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Botticini
Maristella Botticini
Bocconi
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Regulation may not necessarily slow down the deployment of AI if it provides legal security
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Gorodnichenko
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Berkeley
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Are there really effective tools for doing so?
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
There is also an issue of global competition An international, coordinated slowdown of innovation is not going to happen. In this case it is better to be among the leaders than the followers.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
One question is whether it can be slowed effectively (esp. internationally). But it will be even harder once AI firms make huge profits & have lobbying power. Also, unlikely markets and deployment will protect us against harm. So we need corp governance and some rules for AI.
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
We cannot slow down everyone's own pace of AI development, only our own. Those who slow down will soon lag behind.
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
I believe that better regulations to improve data privacy and giving consumers ownership over their data would be very useful. It could even improve competition. But purely slowing down adoption of AI makes those countries less competitive without changing the pace of adoption.
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Tenreyro
Silvana Tenreyro
LSE
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chad Jones at Stanford makes a compelling case for the need to slow down the rapid pace of AI progress in order to reduce existential risk.
-see background information here
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van der Ploeg
Rick Van der Ploeg
Oxford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Can progress be slowed down?