The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I'm not aware of any evidence that says that immigration has long-run domestic costs -- though it may impose short-term adjustment costs.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Initially, costs > economic benefits. Employment rate shockingly low. Long-run economic implications are uncertain.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
I base my response on the but-for immigration demographics in Germany, but there are many variables.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Maybe by the end of the decade. The more there are, the longer it will take. All conditional on no political catastrophe in the meantime.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
In the long run, benefits (larger labor force and more entrepreneurship) will exceed costs. In the next ten years? Assimilation takes time
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
These decisions involve much more than economics
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The proposition is ambiguous whether it refers to the pre-immigration citizens, who may be indifferent, or the immigrants, who gain a lot.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Refugees may provide labor that Germans can benefit from. But welfare transfers from Germans may be required. The net effect is ambiguous.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The generous German welfare state will be burdened by the costs of absorbing these immigrants. E.g., they do not speak German.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
low skills and lack of language will make assimilation challenging, but by the end of the decade they will probably be net contributors
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Impacts probably small, it sign unclear on pre-arrival residents.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Europe is aging, and so an influx of young people is potentially valuable, but much depends on how effectively they are integrated.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are good arguments for admitting refugees, but I haven't seen evidence for this one in this case
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seems most likely outcome.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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