US

Refugees in Germany

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I'm not aware of any evidence that says that immigration has long-run domestic costs -- though it may impose short-term adjustment costs.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Initially, costs > economic benefits. Employment rate shockingly low. Long-run economic implications are uncertain.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
I base my response on the but-for immigration demographics in Germany, but there are many variables.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Maybe by the end of the decade. The more there are, the longer it will take. All conditional on no political catastrophe in the meantime.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
In the long run, benefits (larger labor force and more entrepreneurship) will exceed costs. In the next ten years? Assimilation takes time
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
These decisions involve much more than economics
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
The proposition is ambiguous whether it refers to the pre-immigration citizens, who may be indifferent, or the immigrants, who gain a lot.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Refugees may provide labor that Germans can benefit from. But welfare transfers from Germans may be required. The net effect is ambiguous.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
The generous German welfare state will be burdened by the costs of absorbing these immigrants. E.g., they do not speak German.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
low skills and lack of language will make assimilation challenging, but by the end of the decade they will probably be net contributors
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Impacts probably small, it sign unclear on pre-arrival residents.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Europe is aging, and so an influx of young people is potentially valuable, but much depends on how effectively they are integrated.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
There are good arguments for admitting refugees, but I haven't seen evidence for this one in this case
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Seems most likely outcome.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History