Question A:

Letting publicly traded firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
I don't see any evidence that annually reporting firms in other countries have a longer-term management focus. Quarterly earnings limit the ability of managers to spin stories to manipulate the stock price, and keep attention focused on relevant accounting data.
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
"Short-termism" is a persistent myth. What are the highest priced stocks? Electric cars, rocket ships to mars, hallucinating AI. With elephants of regulatory dysfunction in the room, we worry about how frequency of accounting reports affect CEO psychology?
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Du
Wenxin Du
HBS
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Public firms like to show smooth earnings, expecting investors to penalize bad surprises. They sometimes have incentives to sacrifice total economic shareholder value to "fill in potholes" when near-quarter results are threatened.
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Earnings releases provide near-term performance information regardless, so changing the horizon of releases should not be a substantial factor in the longer horizon of decision-making.
Fama
Eugene Fama
Chicago Booth
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
My JAE paper shows that 78% of CFOs admit to sacrificing long-term value to manage quarterly earnings (link below). Moving to annual might mitigate this problem - but at a cost of less information being available. The UK evidence suggests there is little impact on investment.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Two countervailing effects -- perhaps less short-term, but less accountability. The latter is a bigger problem than the former. Better to have quarterly reporting, but with less onerous / invasive audit requirements. E.g., SOX 404 attestations every three years, not every year.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
It would relieve short term pressure, but not clear that they would necessarily become patient long-term oriented.
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
From Graham, Harvey and Rajgopal (2005): "A surprising 78% of our sample admits to sacrificing long-term value to smooth earnings. "
-see background information here
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
One year versus one quarter is not that different. And, there are so many other ways in which firms will be myopic that I think this change won’t matter.
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Continuous complete transparency would provide managers with maximal information and allow the best informed decisions. The only counterarguments are strategic (keeping info from competitors) and the costs of reporting, neither of which can justify moving to annual.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
I am not sure about the short term focus but I do think it lets the management to focus more on the firm strategy. It could be a positive change.
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Their primary horizons are already likely to be longer than just a few quarters.
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Investors and CEOs both understand that stock prices are not driven by one quarter's worth of earnings, and that it's all about the forward guidance. The information loss from infrequent and lagged reporting would increase uncertainty and lower firm value.
-see background information here
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Wild idea: how about letting the market decide what+how often reports are useful? (Without having to go private?) With big issues on the table -- corporate and individual taxes, regulatory and FDA assault, etc. -- the frequency of mandated reports seems like a 0.0000001% issue.
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Du
Wenxin Du
HBS
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The tradeoff is the benefit of reducing bad short-term incentives versus the cost of less public information. More frequent disclosure aids shareholder governance and the allocation of capital to firms by the market. I suspect the tradeoff somewhat favors quarterly disclosure.
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reducing information to shareholders is unlikely to benefit them and increases the scope to obscure relevant information. This is unlikely to be outweighed by costs of reporting.
Fama
Eugene Fama
Chicago Booth
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Currently, there is plenty of value destruction. Investment is delayed to "hit" the quarterly target. Annual = less information. Another strategy is real time reporting of certain metrics. This would known to be noisy & there would be no incentive to manage on a quarterly basis.
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Very hard to know the net effects, for instance it would become easier to hide bad decisions for longer periods.
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
While less frequent reporting might increase managers’ investment horizons, it will arguably also increase information asymmetry. This will make monitoring more difficult (i.e., costly) and thus increase agency costs.
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Frequent disclosures would provide investors with maximal information about long-term investments which would then be more rapidly reflected in prices. The costs of reporting cannot justify moving to annual reporting (which could lead to more liability from improper disclosure).
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs
Strongly Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Too much loss of information. the quarterly reports are already fairly infrequent in this modern fast-paced economy. The information loss from going to annual filings would be substantial. What we need is both quarterly and annual reports. The annual report can focus on long-run
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History