Question A:
Letting publicly traded firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't see any evidence that annually reporting firms in other countries have a longer-term management focus. Quarterly earnings limit the ability of managers to spin stories to manipulate the stock price, and keep attention focused on relevant accounting data.
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
"Short-termism" is a persistent myth. What are the highest priced stocks? Electric cars, rocket ships to mars, hallucinating AI. With elephants of regulatory dysfunction in the room, we worry about how frequency of accounting reports affect CEO psychology?
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Public firms like to show smooth earnings, expecting investors to penalize bad surprises. They sometimes have incentives to sacrifice total economic shareholder value to "fill in potholes" when near-quarter results are threatened.
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Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
Earnings releases provide near-term performance information regardless, so changing the horizon of releases should not be a substantial factor in the longer horizon of decision-making.
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
My JAE paper shows that 78% of CFOs admit to sacrificing long-term value to manage quarterly earnings (link below). Moving to annual might mitigate this problem - but at a cost of less information being available. The UK evidence suggests there is little impact on investment.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Two countervailing effects -- perhaps less short-term, but less accountability. The latter is a bigger problem than the former. Better to have quarterly reporting, but with less onerous / invasive audit requirements. E.g., SOX 404 attestations every three years, not every year.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
It would relieve short term pressure, but not clear that they would necessarily become patient long-term oriented.
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Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
From Graham, Harvey and Rajgopal (2005): "A surprising 78% of our sample admits to sacrificing long-term value to smooth earnings. "
-see background information here |
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
One year versus one quarter is not that different. And, there are so many other ways in which firms will be myopic that I think this change won’t matter.
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
Continuous complete transparency would provide managers with maximal information and allow the best informed decisions. The only counterarguments are strategic (keeping info from competitors) and the costs of reporting, neither of which can justify moving to annual.
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
I am not sure about the short term focus but I do think it lets the management to focus more on the firm strategy. It could be a positive change.
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Their primary horizons are already likely to be longer than just a few quarters.
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
Investors and CEOs both understand that stock prices are not driven by one quarter's worth of earnings, and that it's all about the forward guidance. The information loss from infrequent and lagged reporting would increase uncertainty and lower firm value.
-see background information here |
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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John Campbell |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Cochrane |
Hoover Institution Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Wild idea: how about letting the market decide what+how often reports are useful? (Without having to go private?) With big issues on the table -- corporate and individual taxes, regulatory and FDA assault, etc. -- the frequency of mandated reports seems like a 0.0000001% issue.
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Francesca Cornelli |
Northwestern Kellogg | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Douglas Diamond |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Wenxin Du |
HBS | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The tradeoff is the benefit of reducing bad short-term incentives versus the cost of less public information. More frequent disclosure aids shareholder governance and the allocation of capital to firms by the market. I suspect the tradeoff somewhat favors quarterly disclosure.
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Janice Eberly |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
Reducing information to shareholders is unlikely to benefit them and increases the scope to obscure relevant information. This is unlikely to be outweighed by costs of reporting.
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Eugene Fama |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Gabaix |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Itay Goldstein |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Graham |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Campbell R. Harvey |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
Currently, there is plenty of value destruction. Investment is delayed to "hit" the quarterly target. Annual = less information. Another strategy is real time reporting of certain metrics. This would known to be noisy & there would be no incentive to manage on a quarterly basis.
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Harrison Hong |
Columbia | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Wei Jiang |
Emory Goizueta | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Very hard to know the net effects, for instance it would become easier to hide bad decisions for longer periods.
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Ralph Koijen |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Camelia Kuhnen |
UNC Kenan-Flagler | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Andrew Lo |
MIT Sloan | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Michelle Lowry |
Drexel LeBow | Bio/Vote History | ||
While less frequent reporting might increase managers’ investment horizons, it will arguably also increase information asymmetry. This will make monitoring more difficult (i.e., costly) and thus increase agency costs.
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Sydney Ludvigson |
NYU | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Matteo Maggiori |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Gregor Matvos |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tobias Moskowitz |
Yale School of Management | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stefan Nagel |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Parker |
MIT Sloan | Bio/Vote History | ||
Frequent disclosures would provide investors with maximal information about long-term investments which would then be more rapidly reflected in prices. The costs of reporting cannot justify moving to annual reporting (which could lead to more liability from improper disclosure).
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Christine Parlour |
Berkeley Haas | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Thomas Philippon |
NYU Stern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Manju Puri |
Duke Fuqua | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael R. Roberts |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paola Sapienza |
Northwestern Kellogg | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amit Seru |
Stanford GSB | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Stambaugh |
UPenn Wharton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Laura Starks |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jeremy Stein |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Johannes Stroebel |
NYU Stern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sheridan Titman |
UT Austin McCombs | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh |
Columbia Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
Too much loss of information. the quarterly reports are already fairly infrequent in this modern fast-paced economy. The information loss from going to annual filings would be substantial. What we need is both quarterly and annual reports. The annual report can focus on long-run
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Toni Whited |
UMich Ross School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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