Question A:
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms may well still choose to report quarterly. And a year is still a short horizon for investment projects.
-see background information here |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Allow them to" would be more appropriate language than "lead them to." At most a _very_modest positive.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There's almost no support for short-term-ism. And earnings numbers themselves are unimportant. The market values overall prospects.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am in favor of letting firms do this but only if it is part of their charter or approved by shareholders. It should not be a blanket rule.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No firm evidence, just anecdotal. Not clear there is any better periodicity.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Smart investors are perfectly capable of evaluating firms using a combination of multiple quarterly reports.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would increase the information difference between insiders and outsiders. Management would have more time to hide their mistakes.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two countervailing effects -- perhaps less short-term, but less accountability. The latter is a bigger problem than the former.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would relieve short term pressure, but not clear that they would necessarily become patient long-term oriented.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Assume means requiring. Given all the pressures, unlikely that would be major change, so epsilon effect. They might report anyway.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A year is still too short of a horizon to be confident that executives would appropriately weight long-term issues, which may span decades.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is almost trivially true, since there would be no quarter-to-quarter considerations. But it is hard to imagine a big effect.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Recent working paper says yes. http://bit.ly/1HgC0lg
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tradeoffs for investors (less transparency for example).
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Public markets need certified disclosure regimes. Businesses that are harmed by disclosure should be private.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For some firms it might be better, for others worse. This is not a case where one size fits all.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One year far too infrequent for well functioning markets.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is difficult for someone to benefit from being forced to be less informed. There is such a thing as free disposal.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps less short-term, but less accountability. Less short-term a minor improvement if any; less accountability a bigger cost.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very hard to know the net effects, for instance it would become easier to hide bad decisions for longer periods.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Firms would probably report anyway. If not, would lead to more uncertainty and possibly more volatility. In any case, small effect.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The modest push toward better weighting of long-term issues must be balanced against the attendant loss of information and accountability.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Perhaps a touch less short-termism but a lot less timely information. Hard to see a net gain.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Quarterly earnings reports make it easier to monitor managers, even if earnings can be manipulated.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again see http://bit.ly/1HgC0lg
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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