Question A:
Even if the
third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently
announced increases real GDP growth over the
next two years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
15%
0%
15%
31%
21%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
27%
33%
33%
7%
Question B:
Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases annual consumer price inflation over the next five years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
10%
0%
13%
23%
33%
8%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
16%
27%
41%
16%
Question C:
Even if inflationary
pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low
interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in
if it chooses to do so.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
10%
0%
8%
13%
44%
13%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
10%
15%
47%
27%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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My guess is QE3 will have a small positive effect on GDP, but I am not well informed on this issue.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What does inconsequential mean?
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The impact might be small, but "inconsequential" , to me, means "of negligible value." The Fed is doing this for a reason, not for fun.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Purchases are open ended so consequences will depend on magnitude which remains uncertain. And does your question encompas forward guidance?
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Current activity depends mainly on shorter rates, so lowering long rates has little effect. See my 1977 Brookings paper.
-see background information here |
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too many other negative pressures around the world (europe, fiscal cliff, china) for the Fed's policy to make much difference
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Likely to be small, but consequential if it has net job creation.
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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don't know and will never know. Economy is likely to start growing at some point and no one will know what caused it.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The path of Inflation could be raised moderately over 5 years by this QE. The Fed has said as much, and probably wants a bit more inflation.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increase is unlikely to exceed 1-2 percentage points per annum. Is this inconsequel? I'm not sure how to interpret the word in this context.
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Only way this is incorrect is if the Fed ignores lots of warnings. Given current FOMC membership that risk is small.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, inconsequential is poor word choice. Surely less than 50 basis points per year.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends what you mean by 'consequential.' I doubt there is a chance of inflation as high as 5% before the Fed tightens.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inflation risk still seems low.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, it clearly has the tools, but will it use them quickly and aggressively, especially given the short-run cost in jobs? We may find out.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There's no upper bound on the Fed's contractionary power--it can sell bonds and raise the interest rate on reserves, the latter sans limit.
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||||
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lots of ways to tighten and failure to do so would have to be an active choice.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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e.g., the Fed phased out its liquidity lending facilities when the worst of the crisis passed.
-see background information here |
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But recall that inflation is below Fed goal.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again depends on what 'substantially' means. There is some (uncertain) point at which long-term inflation expectations lose their anchor.
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||||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The difference between can do it and will do it is a bit tricky when we are talking about the Fed
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