Question A:
The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
19%
5%
2%
12%
19%
31%
12%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
14%
12%
41%
27%
Question B:
The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving among low-income populations.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
19%
2%
2%
24%
14%
31%
7%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
3%
31%
15%
36%
14%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some estimates suggest effects from health to GDP, but the magnitudes are small. Considerable evidence exists on income to health channel
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is ill posed.I would guess that the likely reason for correlation is a third variable, like effective governance, which affects both
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Historically one often sees first child mortality going down, before growth really picks up.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I suspect this is the primary channel, but there is some evidence the other way.
-see background information here |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is literature both ways on this.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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China is the obvious counterexample.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, that seems right, but perhaps the answer changes for pre-historic societies.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm voting on the basis of the "primarily," since both directions are important.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this seems right on average but negative externalities like air pollution mean the relationship is not straightforward
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thanks to products from advanced countries, poor countries have had huge improvements in longevity without much income growth.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Better health can surely increase productivity and hence growth but it is hard to believe that the causation mainly goes this way.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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seems plausible that other factors ("institutions") could be driving both
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In some cases, health outcomes have improved without significant income growth, and it is difficult to say that the causality runs one way.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is some evidence that the relationship goes in both directions. Unclear which effect is stronger.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both directions of casualty operate, but the weight of evidence is that income to health has a stronger effect.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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$1 a day is an arbitrary measure. It is informative about the bottom, but not about living standards among low middle income households.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's an okay start, but one could do much better! Why use a binary measure?
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As population grows a declining fraction does not automatically imply a decline in number of people. Also, one has to correct for PPP and ..
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree more than I disagree, but there are limitations to this measure.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is too incomplete, and too badly measured.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There's more to the issue, but under the Inada condition, we care desperately about people whose log consumption is close to minus infinity.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is probably not a great measure unless it incorporates the prices of local goods. Also it misses out on non-traded goods and services.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If this were $1 of consumption and not income, yes. Also if we mean "income" inferred from consumption, yes. But cash income is poor measure
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The reduction in poverty worldwide so measured is a great success story over the last 35 years.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are many other measures that should also be used, but this measure is informative.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obviously not a perfect measure, but intuitive and should capture major trends.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is a good measure, but it is flawed and it is not the only measure.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As usual, the key word here is "good".
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Good" may be too strong. Income is incomplete, difficult to define and measure, hard to compare across populations... But it's something.
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