Question A:
The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving among low-income populations.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some estimates suggest effects from health to GDP, but the magnitudes are small. Considerable evidence exists on income to health channel
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is ill posed.I would guess that the likely reason for correlation is a third variable, like effective governance, which affects both
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Historically one often sees first child mortality going down, before growth really picks up.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I suspect this is the primary channel, but there is some evidence the other way.
-see background information here |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is literature both ways on this.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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China is the obvious counterexample.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, that seems right, but perhaps the answer changes for pre-historic societies.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm voting on the basis of the "primarily," since both directions are important.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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this seems right on average but negative externalities like air pollution mean the relationship is not straightforward
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Thanks to products from advanced countries, poor countries have had huge improvements in longevity without much income growth.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Better health can surely increase productivity and hence growth but it is hard to believe that the causation mainly goes this way.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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seems plausible that other factors ("institutions") could be driving both
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In some cases, health outcomes have improved without significant income growth, and it is difficult to say that the causality runs one way.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is some evidence that the relationship goes in both directions. Unclear which effect is stronger.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both directions of casualty operate, but the weight of evidence is that income to health has a stronger effect.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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$1 a day is an arbitrary measure. It is informative about the bottom, but not about living standards among low middle income households.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's an okay start, but one could do much better! Why use a binary measure?
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As population grows a declining fraction does not automatically imply a decline in number of people. Also, one has to correct for PPP and ..
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I agree more than I disagree, but there are limitations to this measure.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is too incomplete, and too badly measured.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There's more to the issue, but under the Inada condition, we care desperately about people whose log consumption is close to minus infinity.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is probably not a great measure unless it incorporates the prices of local goods. Also it misses out on non-traded goods and services.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If this were $1 of consumption and not income, yes. Also if we mean "income" inferred from consumption, yes. But cash income is poor measure
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The reduction in poverty worldwide so measured is a great success story over the last 35 years.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are many other measures that should also be used, but this measure is informative.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obviously not a perfect measure, but intuitive and should capture major trends.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is a good measure, but it is flawed and it is not the only measure.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As usual, the key word here is "good".
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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"Good" may be too strong. Income is incomplete, difficult to define and measure, hard to compare across populations... But it's something.
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