A ban on very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates (aka payday lending) would make most people who use or might use them better off.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
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Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
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Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is a demand for these loans, but also miscalculations and longer-term problems for borrowers, including for their families.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
You've set the bar high: "very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates." So I'll say that these loans benefit few people
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
This does not mean regulation of the sector's practices is unwarranted, but the research on access to credit is pretty clear.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seem like good arguments on both sides
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Meltzer (2011) finds that payday loans do not alleviate hardship. But banning the market may be dominated by stronger regulation.
-see background information here |
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Disclosure rules and banning rollover makes more sense. Sometimes people need credit.
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
The best evidence (see link) finds sharp welfare declines from interest rate caps in a somewhat similar market.
-see background information here |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Some would gain and some would lose—payday loans are not all harmful
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It depends on what would replace payday loans as a source of short-term liquidity. Better information & lending mechanisms need to be tried.
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Better would be to provide some regulation of interest rates.
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I generally favor allowing voluntary transactions, but I suspect that demand is usually driven by behavior inconsistent with rationality.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
i doubt it is a generically good idea, but the research is very mixed, despite many, many papers; see the literature review by morgan et al
-see background information here |
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Payday loans at usurious interest rates exploit borrowers' ignorance.
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Most $ spent are heavy users which does not seem like a good arrangement. Occasional users can benefit. More wealth at bottom would be best.
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
A ban would help those exploited by PD loans, but would harm those for whom such loans are a lifeline. "Most" is difficult to determine.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is evidence that taking a payday loan increases bankruptcy but should first try other measures such as enforcing better disclosure.
-see background information here |
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
On the one hand, some are victimized; on the other, some have no other source of needed credit. Not an easy call without facts.
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
A complete ban seems extreme as a way of protecting borrowers from predatory lending.
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
No evidence of market power in this industry, so this seems to go against revealed preference. What markets arise if this is banned?
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Loan sharks may be worse.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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