US

Payday Lending

A ban on very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates (aka payday lending) would make most people who use or might use them better off.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
0%
2%
23%
37%
33%
0%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
3%
25%
42%
30%
0%
Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
There is a demand for these loans, but also miscalculations and longer-term problems for borrowers, including for their families.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
You've set the bar high: "very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates." So I'll say that these loans benefit few people
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
This does not mean regulation of the sector's practices is unwarranted, but the research on access to credit is pretty clear.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Seem like good arguments on both sides
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Meltzer (2011) finds that payday loans do not alleviate hardship. But banning the market may be dominated by stronger regulation.
-see background information here
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Disclosure rules and banning rollover makes more sense. Sometimes people need credit.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The best evidence (see link) finds sharp welfare declines from interest rate caps in a somewhat similar market.
-see background information here
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Some would gain and some would lose—payday loans are not all harmful
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
It depends on what would replace payday loans as a source of short-term liquidity. Better information & lending mechanisms need to be tried.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Better would be to provide some regulation of interest rates.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I generally favor allowing voluntary transactions, but I suspect that demand is usually driven by behavior inconsistent with rationality.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
i doubt it is a generically good idea, but the research is very mixed, despite many, many papers; see the literature review by morgan et al
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Payday loans at usurious interest rates exploit borrowers' ignorance.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Most $ spent are heavy users which does not seem like a good arrangement. Occasional users can benefit. More wealth at bottom would be best.
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
A ban would help those exploited by PD loans, but would harm those for whom such loans are a lifeline. "Most" is difficult to determine.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There is evidence that taking a payday loan increases bankruptcy but should first try other measures such as enforcing better disclosure.
-see background information here
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
On the one hand, some are victimized; on the other, some have no other source of needed credit. Not an easy call without facts.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
A complete ban seems extreme as a way of protecting borrowers from predatory lending.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
No evidence of market power in this industry, so this seems to go against revealed preference. What markets arise if this is banned?
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Loan sharks may be worse.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History