Question A:
All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
14%
11%
11%
36%
25%
2%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
25%
43%
28%
4%
0%
Question B:
Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
16%
5%
9%
16%
30%
20%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
14%
17%
35%
26%
8%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It creates incentives for many spurious patents that might actually block innovation.
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Allowing more competition for patent rights is good, but frictions in that market might suggest barring trolls. I'm uncertain.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
No definitive evidence but available evidence points negative. See references
-see background information here |
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
If patents are correctly granted trolls can encourage innovation. if patents are incorrectly granted trolls can impede innovation.
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This may just be rent seeking but how can this activity be prevented without destroying the transferability of patents, a form of property?
|
||||
 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Conclusive evidence is difficult to come by, but there appears to be no evidence that they have a positive effect.
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not simple. Probably encourages independent inventors & small firms, but their weak-basis lawsuits are a tax on other innovators.
|
||||
 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Patent trolls pay for patents, which encourages innovation, but they obviously also suppress future innovation
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
In some fields they seem to impede innovation. I applaud Tesla's recent decision to release all their patents.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A lot of the open source software has been hugely influential.
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The usual incentive-for-innovation justification for patent protection seems to apply here, as in many other markets.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is a lot of room for improvement of the current system, but without any patents at all, there would be no incentives to innovate.
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Patents can encourage innovation. But many trivial software patents seem to be granted, which can discourage innovation and hurt consumers.
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Example: Economists oppose software development in economics. Innovation would be further reduced if there were no financial returns.
|
||||
|
Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Open source is at least a viable alternative. Patents have advantages, but their net effect is unclear.
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A sensible system for software patens would clearly be better than nothing. The current system? Not so clear.
|
||||
|
Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Very much a quantitative question.
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is the domain in which the patent system seems to be in most need of reform.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
