Passive Investing

The amount of passively invested funds has reached levels at which it has a measurable detrimental effect on market efficiency.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Campbell
John Campbell
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
If passive investing grows at the expense of loss-making active investing, it reduces the profits available to active investors with private information but this does not necessarily make stock prices less efficient.
-see background information here
Cochrane
John Cochrane
Hoover Institution Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Index funds largely expand investing to a population that didn't hold stocks. Hedge funds have expanded. Not much evidence that there is less overall informed money, or that markets have become less efficient over time.
Cornelli
Francesca Cornelli
Northwestern Kellogg Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Diamond
Douglas Diamond
Chicago Booth
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I expect that the effect of amount of passive investing is self limiting by the effect on the profits from skilled active investing. These profits would increase as more investing became passive.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
We are now relying now on fewer investors to bear firm-specific supply shocks and to do research. Consider for instance the impact of index deletions and additions. Still early, though, to ring the emergency alarm bells. The market may adjust and adapt over time on its own.
Eberly
Janice Eberly
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Gabaix
Xavier Gabaix
Harvard
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
If now-passive investors were investing more actively, it's not clear that they would value stocks very rationally.
Goldstein
Itay Goldstein
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Graham
John Graham
Duke Fuqua
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey
Duke Fuqua
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Researchers have looked at the impact on individual stocks when included in ETFs (passive). Evidence suggests that after inclusion volatility increases and there is also negative autocorrelation (JF 2018-link). These findings are consistent with a negative impact on efficiency.
-see background information here
Hirshleifer
David Hirshleifer
USC
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
What fraction of funds are invested passively is endogenous.
Hong
Harrison Hong
Columbia
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Optimal fraction of passive versus active from a welfare perspective depends on a number of parameters which are difficult to measure.
Jiang
Wei Jiang
Emory Goizueta
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Koijen
Ralph Koijen
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
The evidence so far seems mixed, see (and the references therein)
-see background information here
Kuhnen
Camelia Kuhnen
UNC Kenan-Flagler
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lo
Andrew Lo
MIT Sloan Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Lowry
Michelle Lowry
Drexel LeBow
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
The growth in indexing would have a detrimental effect on the market if nothing else simultaneously changed. However, we expect activist investors to 'fill the gap' in information production - to take advantage of inefficiencies.
-see background information here
Ludvigson
Sydney Ludvigson
NYU
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
In some models, passive investing might make financial market returns more volatile, depending on parameters. Efficiency is a different issue, since even a small number of active traders might be enough for prices to reveal "all relevant information".
Maggiori
Matteo Maggiori
Stanford GSB
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Matvos
Gregor Matvos
Northwestern Kellogg
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Moskowitz
Tobias Moskowitz
Yale School of Management
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
While the level of passive investment has gone up substantially over time, it is still at a very low level that likely has no discernable impact on market efficiency. I doubt any impact is discernable in the data and indeed there may be no effect.
Nagel
Stefan Nagel
Chicago Booth
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The smoking gun of reduced efficiency would be greater aggregate gross outperformance of active managers. No sign of this so far. Trend towards passive did not only take capital away from skilled active managers, but also from noise-trading active managers and retail investors.
Parker
Jonathan Parker
MIT Sloan
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Passive investing 1) reduces noise trading by uninformed investors & increases price impact of informed, increasing price informativeness and efficiency of real investment; 2) saves real resources allocated to information fast for trading profits but too slow for real decisions.
Parlour
Christine Parlour
Berkeley Haas Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Philippon
Thomas Philippon
NYU Stern
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Puri
Manju Puri
Duke Fuqua
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on what sources of capital it is substituting for e.g., institutional/retail; and where the capital is housed.
Roberts
Michael R. Roberts
UPenn Wharton
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Sapienza
Paola Sapienza
Northwestern Kellogg
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There is some theoretical literature arguing both in favor and against the hypothesis that a change in index investing reduces price efficiency. A recent paper claims an heterogenous effects. Some earlier paper provided evidence for null effects. links provide references
-see background information here
Seru
Amit Seru
Stanford GSB
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It is hard to know whether current level is high enough relative to one where market efficiency would be impacted. This includes not just informativeness of prices but also market discipline on firms (discipline).
Stambaugh
Robert Stambaugh
UPenn Wharton
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The amount of indexing is a result, not a cause. It reflects money that cannot be deployed actively, net of costs, to exploit profitably whatever inefficiency remains.
Starks
Laura Starks
UT Austin McCombs
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Research suggests that when active funds face more competition from passive funds, the active managers become more active and lower their fees.
-see background information here
Stein
Jeremy Stein
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Stroebel
Johannes Stroebel
NYU Stern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maybe I'm not fully understanding theq
Sufi
Amir Sufi
Chicago Booth
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Titman
Sheridan Titman
UT Austin McCombs
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
It’s true that long only mutual funds on average take less active positions, but I believe that this effect has been more than offset by long-short hedge funds.
Van Nieuwerburgh
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Columbia Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
More passive investing and benchmarking makes a large fraction of assets and asset managers uninterested in information acquisition (information scale effect), it also makes them trade less aggressively on the information they have. Both forces reduce information aggregation.
-see background information here
Werner
Ingrid M. Werner
OSU Fisher School
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Whited
Toni Whited
UMich Ross School
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History