US

Missing Productivity Growth

The biggest reason for the measured slowdown in US productivity growth since the mid-2000s is that productivity increases have gone mismeasured, including new and better products and services that have been insufficiently captured by real output data.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
There is no evidence supporting this claim. Productivity has always been mismeasured. No compelling evidence that this has gotten worse.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
A number of papers debunk this idea, eg. Syverson JEP 2017. There's surely mismeasurement, but v. unlikely the primary explanation for trend
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Requires mismeasurement problems to have grown over time. Mismeasurement may have increased slightly, but only slightly in my view.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Productivity has slowed down across countries and industries and it hasn’t been worse in places we think are most ripe with unmeasured gains
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
unaware of decisive evidence that this is biggest explanation for this period
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It's a reason but I'm not sure that it is the biggest reason.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Mismeasurement has always been a problem. Retirements of Baby Boomers may be a new factor at this time.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
See RJ Gordon on this topic.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Mismeasurement is a factor, but there are others, such as an aging population, climate change, resources for homeland security, and war.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Mismeasurement plays a role but not sure it is the biggest.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
It may be a factor, but the productivity slowdown is widespread, and nothing indicates that mismeasurement is the most important factor.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The slowdown requires a worsening rate of mismeasurement (2nd derivative) and the research is clear that this is not the case, see links.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
It is clear that this understatement exists. The magnitude is far more uncertain.