The biggest reason for the measured slowdown in US productivity growth since the mid-2000s is that productivity increases have gone mismeasured, including new and better products and services that have been insufficiently captured by real output data.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
12%
7%
7%
30%
37%
7%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
13%
41%
38%
8%
0%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is no evidence supporting this claim. Productivity has always been mismeasured. No compelling evidence that this has gotten worse.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
A number of papers debunk this idea, eg. Syverson JEP 2017. There's surely mismeasurement, but v. unlikely the primary explanation for trend
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Requires mismeasurement problems to have grown over time. Mismeasurement may have increased slightly, but only slightly in my view.
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Productivity has slowed down across countries and industries and it hasn’t been worse in places we think are most ripe with unmeasured gains
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
unaware of decisive evidence that this is biggest explanation for this period
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
It's a reason but I'm not sure that it is the biggest reason.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Mismeasurement has always been a problem. Retirements of Baby Boomers may be a new factor at this time.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
See RJ Gordon on this topic.
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Mismeasurement is a factor, but there are others, such as an aging population, climate change, resources for homeland security, and war.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Mismeasurement plays a role but not sure it is the biggest.
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
It may be a factor, but the productivity slowdown is widespread, and nothing indicates that mismeasurement is the most important factor.
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The slowdown requires a worsening rate of mismeasurement (2nd derivative) and the research is clear that this is not the case, see links.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is clear that this understatement exists. The magnitude is far more uncertain.
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