Question A:
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The weight of the evidence is that a modest increase in the minimum will have a small negative effect on employment of low skill workers.
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm not aware of any strong evidence demonstrating this result.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even among hourly paid workers with less than a high school diploma, only about 11% earn the Fed min wage or less.
-see background information here |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Past minimum wage increases have not had large disemployment effects, but we are still suffering high unemploment so effects may be worse.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The "noticeably" made me pause. A bit harder yes, but not sure how noticeably.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The empirical evidence now pretty decisively shows no employment effect, even a few years later. See Dube, Lester and Reich in the REStat
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I'm aware that some fairly clean natural experiments have not found effects.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unemployment among low-skilled workers is already high by historic standards, indicating that wages are already too high for market-clearing
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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For some it will definitely reduce opportunities, but in other places it will not even be binding Net effect is hard to tell
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There would surely be some effect, but "noticeably" seems a reach.
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, I know the Econ 101 answer but the evidence suggests the effect on employment is between small and 0,.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is little evidence that small changes in minimum wage cause employment falls, but this is larger.
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Expected earnings of low skill workers will rise because higher wages/hours will more than offset reduced employment.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Decades of research on the minimum wage in the U.S. find that the distortionary effects are quite small.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Important to compare to alternatives like EITC.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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About half min wage workers are under 25. About a quarter of min wage workers are working fewer than 35 hours per week.
-see background information here |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given that we have a minimum wage, indexing it would make a lot of sense.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The evidence is pretty clear that employment effects are small and benefits to workers are first order.
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends what your social welfare function looks like
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The benefits go to the somewhat more skilled at the expense of the lowest, which does not seem to be desirable policy.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Workers most likely to benefit are those with medium skills. Workers most likely to lose (be unemployed) are those with the lowest skills.
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Total effects are hard to tell, plus there are other policies like the EITC that might be more effective.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think the EITC is better (targeted, not as distortionary).
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not the easiest call, but the minimum wage has been higher in real terms in the past, so this would not move us into uncharted waters.
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All methods of helping the poor cause distortions. This one not bad.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But there are better alternative policies, most obviously increasing the EITC.
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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