Question A:
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
8%
3%
0%
32%
24%
34%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
38%
22%
40%
0%
Question B:
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
8%
3%
3%
8%
32%
42%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
10%
23%
52%
10%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The weight of the evidence is that a modest increase in the minimum will have a small negative effect on employment of low skill workers.
|
||||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm not aware of any strong evidence demonstrating this result.
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Even among hourly paid workers with less than a high school diploma, only about 11% earn the Fed min wage or less.
-see background information here |
||||
 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Past minimum wage increases have not had large disemployment effects, but we are still suffering high unemploment so effects may be worse.
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The "noticeably" made me pause. A bit harder yes, but not sure how noticeably.
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The empirical evidence now pretty decisively shows no employment effect, even a few years later. See Dube, Lester and Reich in the REStat
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm aware that some fairly clean natural experiments have not found effects.
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Unemployment among low-skilled workers is already high by historic standards, indicating that wages are already too high for market-clearing
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
For some it will definitely reduce opportunities, but in other places it will not even be binding Net effect is hard to tell
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There would surely be some effect, but "noticeably" seems a reach.
|
||||
 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Yes, I know the Econ 101 answer but the evidence suggests the effect on employment is between small and 0,.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There is little evidence that small changes in minimum wage cause employment falls, but this is larger.
|
||||
 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Expected earnings of low skill workers will rise because higher wages/hours will more than offset reduced employment.
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Decades of research on the minimum wage in the U.S. find that the distortionary effects are quite small.
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Important to compare to alternatives like EITC.
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
About half min wage workers are under 25. About a quarter of min wage workers are working fewer than 35 hours per week.
-see background information here |
||||
|
Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Given that we have a minimum wage, indexing it would make a lot of sense.
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The evidence is pretty clear that employment effects are small and benefits to workers are first order.
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Depends what your social welfare function looks like
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The benefits go to the somewhat more skilled at the expense of the lowest, which does not seem to be desirable policy.
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Workers most likely to benefit are those with medium skills. Workers most likely to lose (be unemployed) are those with the lowest skills.
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Total effects are hard to tell, plus there are other policies like the EITC that might be more effective.
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think the EITC is better (targeted, not as distortionary).
-see background information here |
||||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Not the easiest call, but the minimum wage has been higher in real terms in the past, so this would not move us into uncharted waters.
|
||||
|
Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
All methods of helping the poor cause distortions. This one not bad.
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
But there are better alternative policies, most obviously increasing the EITC.
|
||||
|
Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
