Question A:
Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
2%
0%
0%
2%
46%
44%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
1%
45%
54%
Question B:
Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
2%
10%
38%
20%
24%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
14%
41%
21%
24%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement is a good thing economically and in many other ways.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As with trade, it would be hard to argue that migration has been worse for the average western citizen.
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 Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Existing studies conclude to higher GDP and net tax receipts in immigration countries.
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement has improved the matching of skills in europe, there may have been some pressure on wages at the bottom but that is not clear.
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Instances of excessive mobility may have led to negative perceptions (feeling of being worse off)
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More job opportunities have implied more options and made the average citizen better off
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the "average" citizen is mobile it has certainly increased the range of opportunities available to him/her.
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Scale of growth in intra-EU migration tends to be exaggerated.
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Welfare comparisons are hard to substantiate. Moreover, note the identification problem: EU trade and migration happened simultaneously.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People migrate because they want to. Secondary effects are likely positive too.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Especially when considering that many western European countries have low birth rates and aging populations.
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All the evidence points to migration as improving productivity in host countries, with very small negative effects on displaced workers
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, no such thing as "average citizen". But these freedoms are very popular across EU, and they surely have increased EU GDP.
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mobility has not only provided employment to migrant workers, but also raised firm profitability and often wages in recipient countries.
-see background information here |
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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European workers have more choice of work location to maximize their returns
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is an extensive empirical literature demonstrating the broad-based economic benefits of migration. Very few losers.
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Efficiency gains from labour mobility, insurance (via remittances) for lower income economies, societal gains from exposure to other culture
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People sort according to their comparative advantage. Complement to other EU freedoms
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree, though effects on the average person are not the same as on every person.
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||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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You see European people everywhere at work or in retirement.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Mobility from South to North important for cushioning crisis.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think we are all better off from immigration.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As with trade, the effects on low-skilled workers are a bit less clear. Immigrants compete more directly with them. Some might have lost.
-see background information here |
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Richard Baldwin |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some countries have failed to carry out the needed solcial investment and/or to compensate the losers.
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Free movement has improved matching of skills and capital increasing productivity and income with offsetting effects on the low skilled.
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||||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again inadequate policies are more to blame than mobility itself. Moreover many other low skilled workers have been made better off.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The remuneration of low-skilled labor has gone down except, possibly, for those that emigrate within Europe.
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Downward pressure on wages from immigrants with a lower reservation wage.
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||||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
again the question is about movements within europe, thus no doubts
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The free movement of workers has probably led higher unemployment amongst some low skilled-workers, but probably not many.
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||||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
free movement of labor has been an important mechanism for many low skill workers for finding a job after they lost it during the euro crisi
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Martin Hellwig |
Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Freer migration has increased GDP, and thus has raised transfers to lower-skilled people. The balance, I believe (!), may well be positive.
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||||
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same as trade question. Some gain, some lose, also among low-skilled workers.
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||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Native wages for lowest-skilled decrease, but also depends on relative skills of migrants to low-skilled natives
-see background information here |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is definitely a widespread perception, whipped up by populist politicians; but migrants typically bring skills and consume few services
|
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Some lose when public services/housing stock aren't expanded, as in UK. I doubt numbers are huge across EU. Real UK problem: domestic policy
|
||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The evidence on the effect of immigration from EU (as opposed to non-EU) countries on recipient-countries' low-skill wages is ambiguous.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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migration from east European countries has kept wages of unskilled workers in western countries low
|
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some, not many., Social and political effects are another story.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
effects are very hard to quantify
|
||||
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Main wage effect of immigrants is small & is on previous cohorts of immigrants
|
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Empirical evidence on effects of migration from Eastern Europe suggest limited effects on wages in the UK for example.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I can't remember studies on that issue. My intuition is that low skilled workers moved to services where they benefit from complementarities
|
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True, at best, for specific sectors of the labor market (construction in rich countries). Sorry, I answered this to previous in error...
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