US

Mandatory Medicare I

Question A:

Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Increased coverage is almost by definition. Probably better to allow top-up by private insurance and other means, and add more cost controls
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
If everyone is made to participate, and there are some uncovered now, access will increase, almost by definition.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
The question does not discuss cost and other tradeoffs. Currently, many are not covered. All would be covered by this proposal.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This does not mean that it is a good idea
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Some people are uninsured right now and would benefit from the policy, which could be financed by taxing richer people.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Medicare reimbursemt rates are implicitly set by private reimbursemt rates.W/Medicare for all, rates might fall,reducing physician supply
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This would be a bad idea but I suspect a "meaningful" subset would benefit. I believe there are better ways to help them.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the details (including the costs) of implementation.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
essentially true by definition -- unless somehow implementation is totally botched.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Seems likely, although it would depend on funding and implementation
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The ACA has helped, but Census estimates show show 25-30 million people uninsured.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Specially in states w/o medicaid expansion. Universal coverage with complementary private insurance and copay (as France) would be better.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Some would lose: some rural hospitals would likely fail at current Medicare reimbursement rates.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Some people would have improved access but others would have less access. Supply cannot increase very quickly
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This narrow claim seems to be true almost by definition.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Not clear what meaningful is. Without private insurance, some will definitely experience longer queues. Details matter greatly.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Too many free parameters to make a prediction
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Very hard to sketch a new equilibrium with this set of facts.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Probably, but Americans dont like waiting, and may complain successfully, as in VA
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Empirical evidence (e.g. Canada) suggests longer wait times for many. Currently, of course, some are waiting "forever" for health care.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
More access implies longer waits unless there is a way to get more providers.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
There's nothing optimal about allocating medical care by wasteful waiting.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currently well off people can through private insurance get high quality care fast.This option would be closed off; rationing would ensue.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I believe there are no examples worldwide of universal, gov't-provided healthcare in which rationing based on wait times does not occur.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Some forms of rationing would have to be used and queuing times is one likely result.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the details (including the costs) of implementation.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
likely to also be true, particularly for people that might lose very generous insurance
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Depends a lot on reimbursement rates. At current medicare rates, it's possible, but likely would be lobbying to raise rates.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Longer delays is consistent with the experience of other countries.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Copay, with appropriate provisions for the chronically sick, would help minimize waiting times.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Increasing demand in capacity-constrained areas would increase wait times, at least in the short run.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Supply cannot increase quickly
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This seems to be almost inevitable.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
... and reduced waiting time for others.