US

Low-Skilled Immigrants

Question A:

The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Real income of avg the American would rise, but social strains and inequality would also increase.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The median US worker (which is how I interpret the word average) is high skill by global standards
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
It depends on whether one takes a long or short-term horizon.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I think it matters a lot whether or not they are granted citizenship which we are not told.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Labor is a valuable factor input. My answer presumes that many of these new workers would be employed. But I'm not confident of that.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
This would drive down the cost of a variety of services.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
"Average US citizen?" What does this mean. Unskilled natives likely to be worse off, skilled native better off. Who's average?
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
If only workers are admitted, we come out ahead because of tax revenue. But it's not so obvious if they bring their families and relatives.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
On average citizens would be better off--by classical gains from trade . A countervailing effect : welfare payments to unemployed immigrants
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I am sure that I am uncertain. A certain answer would require a knowledge of general eqm effects on which we've only a partial grasp.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Free trade is as good as migration for traded goods. The impact on nongraded goods is unclear, as are the burdens on social programs.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
But the gains to immigrants would be large.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Card's Ely lecture argues wage effects are small. Pro-immigration arguments partly about welfare of immigrants, rather than residents.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
This response is based on the idea that it will increase inequality, which is already too great.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
There will be gains and losses of various types to various people; it is difficult to reduce these to a net effect on an average citizen.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Very unclear how to think about the "average" citizen when there would likely be winners and losers.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Substituting legal immigration for illegal immigration would enhance efficiency and equity.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
For low skill workers, the main adverse effects are through wages. For high skill, through fiscal costs. Both costs could be small
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
The evidence is that complementarities would make most Americans better off. The data is not decisive, though.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I agree that the effect would be negative, but believe that it would be modest, not substantial.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It all turns on what fraction of low skilled US workers don't have an option that they clearly prefer to these mostly dead end low paid jobs
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
A higher number of workers of the same type seeking jobs would lower their average wages or employment rate, other things equal.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Those who compete with low skill immigrants will be hurt by extra competition.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
"substantially" is probably too strong.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
My understanding is that the Mariel question is still up in the air in terms of serious research.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
There can be winners and losers. Similarly skilled workers will face greater competition for jobs and their wages may fall.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Low-skilled workers would probably be worse off but positive gen eqm effects might offset negative direct effects.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It is hard to see how they would benefit, and they would lose from the competition in the labor market.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
I believe the evidence show that some low-skilled natives suffer, but whether many suffer substantially not clear given what I know on this
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Again, Card's work suggests this is not obvious, although one might expect increased labor market competition.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
"Substantially" is a vague term, but on the whole it would probably lower incomes at the bottom.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
These are the most likely candidates for people who will be adversely affected.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Substituting legal for illegal immigration could provide benefits to low-skilled workers generally, for both economic and political reasons.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Evidence that immigration pushes down low skill wages is mixed
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
No way to answer this without knowing the definition of "many" and "substantially" plus some facts.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
The "many" is the problem: some would certainly be hurt (unless compensated). But "many"?