Question A:
Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
If it was not to the benefit of the local government, why would they do it?
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
The competition is fierce and the benefits uncertain. Winners curse is likely.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
If it's done carefully--the firms can't get the tax benefits and then leave--this can pay off for a city or state.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is difficult to believe that taxation decisions are consistent with cost-benefit analysis.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Of cours deals differ but usually the taxpayers get fleeced for a limited number of jobs that get relocated
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It has local benefits, but the costs can outweigh them (e.g., if far enough beyond the peak of the Laffer Curve).
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Benefits are wildly exaggerated in the popular press, and we lack definitive scientific evidence either way.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Well documented that subsidies to sport stadiums yield negative returns and no reason to believe that it is better for other industries
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I doubt it but don't recall seeing anything rigorous on this.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
See Greenstone, Hornbeck, and Moretti (JPE 2010) for some evidence of large positive spillovers
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't see how anyone can have an opinion about this without data. A $1 tax break is worth it. $100B not. In between?
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Such competition helps for local political economy reasons but may shift too much otherwise-public resources towards footloose companies.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I would agree if I were certain that governors had their states' long term interests in mind when cutting tax deals. Not sure that's true.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
On its face, this sort of competition is useful. I can imagine that experts on this issue may suggest some unintended related distortions.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is no social benefit to the US as a whole unless the firms would have located abroad. There is a social loss from lower tax receipts.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is almost entirely zero sum, with the companies gaining and the taxpayers losing.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It could help if tax rates tend to be too high for political economy reasons.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Generally a waste of revenues in negative-sum game.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Such competitive does enhance allocative efficiency, but its primary effect is to transfer surplus from other taxpayers to firms.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Would agree if cities compete with uniform lower taxes for all firms.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unless the firm would otherwise locate abroad, the only net effect is less tax revenue. The EU bans state aid for this reason.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is a clear zero-sum aspect to tax competition. But nothing else can restrain the leviathan. The balance is unclear.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Again data would be nice. Competition is good but unraveling is bad. Which is this? Transparency would help.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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