US

LNG Exports

Restricting US exports of liquefied natural gas would have adverse effects on the US economy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
This would primarily be a transfer from gas producers to U.S. industries and consumers. Welfare losses would probably be second order.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Restrictions are bad. But they may not turn out to be very important as shale gas extraction technologies disseminate internationally.
-see background information here
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Adverse is a weird word, but should allow.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This sort of restriction distorts prices and allocations from their efficient levels. I see no efficiency offsetting gain.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
My answer presumes the typical narrow views of what constitutes an adverse effect on the economy.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
If U.S. has market power in the energy market, there could be favorable terms of trade effects, but this is likely to be second order.
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
true. But ppl should understand that a world mkt for LNG means erasing the US's benefit from having lower energy Ps than others
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
might limit US access to forgn natural resources (e.g.,what about Chinese rare earth materials?). Interesting analysis below
-see background information here
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Totally basic economics--gains from trade
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Energy prices are set by world mkt.Restrictions are thus difficult to justify except for national security & especial fragile local environm
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Restrictions on free trade seldom benefit the US, and I see no special facts here to make this an exception.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Yes, but export opportunities may be short-lived.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Not highly informed on this topic. NERA report for US gov't says LNG exports would have positive impact on GDP, no effect on employment.
-see background information here
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Overall gains but unclear impact on distribution of income.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Presumption should favor free trade.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History