Restricting US exports of liquefied natural gas would have adverse effects on the US economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
This would primarily be a transfer from gas producers to U.S. industries and consumers. Welfare losses would probably be second order.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Restrictions are bad. But they may not turn out to be very important as shale gas extraction technologies disseminate internationally.
-see background information here |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Adverse is a weird word, but should allow.
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
This sort of restriction distorts prices and allocations from their efficient levels. I see no efficiency offsetting gain.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
My answer presumes the typical narrow views of what constitutes an adverse effect on the economy.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
If U.S. has market power in the energy market, there could be favorable terms of trade effects, but this is likely to be second order.
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
true. But ppl should understand that a world mkt for LNG means erasing the US's benefit from having lower energy Ps than others
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
might limit US access to forgn natural resources (e.g.,what about Chinese rare earth materials?). Interesting analysis below
-see background information here |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Totally basic economics--gains from trade
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Energy prices are set by world mkt.Restrictions are thus difficult to justify except for national security & especial fragile local environm
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Restrictions on free trade seldom benefit the US, and I see no special facts here to make this an exception.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yes, but export opportunities may be short-lived.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not highly informed on this topic. NERA report for US gov't says LNG exports would have positive impact on GDP, no effect on employment.
-see background information here |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Overall gains but unclear impact on distribution of income.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Presumption should favor free trade.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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