Question A:
A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably, but the evidence is not as strong as you would think
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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would lead to higher GDP in short term at 5 yrs, less clear & depends on whether tax cuts are budget neutral. see fact 10 in below link.
-see background information here |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The government has to satisfy its budget constraint, so one can't say anything about a tax cut without knowing what else happens.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Results highly dependent on which rates are cut.
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Everything depends on which taxes are cut.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lots of distorting effects of taxes. Costs of higher deficits probably modest at the 5 year horizon; eventually can't just keep borrowing.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on things such as the Fed's response, how permanent it is, how it is financed, and the change in marginal vs. average tax rates.
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Academic evidence supports this. See Romer and Romer AER 2010; Bergh and Henriksen survey and book. Ed Prescott Eli Lecture 2002.
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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To be effective the cut should benefit lower-income consumers. Absent measures to reduce the long-tem deficit, crisis risk could be higher.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Vague question. Whose taxes? (The median "taxpayer" right now pays zero.) And where does the revenue come from?
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I assume you mean relative to "current law".
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If the cut is permanent
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not aware of any evidence in recent history where tax cuts actually raise revenue. Sorry, Laffer.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This calls for a model. A lower tax rate applied to higher earnings could raise or lower tax revenue, depending on the extent of growth.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Moon landing was real. Evolution exists. Tax cuts lose revenue. The reasearch has shown this a thousand times. Enough already.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All evidence that I'm aware of suggest that cutting tax rates "marginally" from their current levels would DECREASE revenues, even 5 yrs out
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See previous question. In addition, few studies suggest we are already at the max of the Laffer curve, though we may be close.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems implausible, but not impossible.
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That did not happen in the past. No reason to think it would happen now.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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May look plausible on a cocktail napkin (or at a cocktail party), but not true empirically in the US.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not enough time for capital to respond much (physical, human, technology), so it would require implausibly large labor supply elasticities.
-see background information here |
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is the Laffer curve issue. There is little (if any) evidence that rates exceed revenue-maximizing levels. See Mankiw, Feldstein.
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Are we thinking of Japan as a model for this kind of "fiscal stimulus"?
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That's a Laffer!
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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