US

Labor Unions

Question A:

Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to the earnings of current workers who become eligible to be members.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to wages for the median household.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Increased unionization of the American workforce would have a net positive effect on employment.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stronger unions will likely push up wages for members. Complication is employer response/plant closures, if only a few plants unionize.
-see background information here
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The size of the increase depends on the sector, but a larger literature finds that unions boost wages of members.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I'm not sure literature has fully wrestled with DiNardo and Lee (2004), although the null wage effect could well be threat effect
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
In the short-run. Less sure about the long-run.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Bargaining power affects compensation. Unions increase workers bargaining power.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Would help some private sector workers, but would reduce jobs by sending others overseas. Public sector workers already very unionized.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
private sector firms are likely to push back and reduce head counts too
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Unionization would help counteract monopsony power.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
"Noticeable boost" means only a non-negative effect, which seems about all one can expect from eligibility.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Unions tend to both raise and compress wages, so this is not correct for higher earners
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Unionization would affect some of low-pay workers, such as in warehouses and delivery, but also impact middle-pay workers in manufacturing.
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It would take more than a couple of Amazon warehouses to make that happen -- maybe 5 to 10 pct points more private sector coverage!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
... also depends on the time horizon
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Unless the median worker is in a union, unions are unlikely to help that worker.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
How much of an increase in unionization would have to be specified.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Depends on which sectors unionize and whether that extends up to the median.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
i doubt it, but without knowing how many people wind up covered in the counterfactural it is hard to say
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Unionization could boost median household earnings, but this will depend on the extent and configuration of unionization.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hard to imagine that anything but an implausibly large increase in unionization would have a noticeable effect on the median household.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Small market share
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Overall employment effect would depend on whether unions negotiate less automation and more worker-friendly technologies, which is uncertain
-see background information here
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
More union membership may or may not reduce employment. It's unlikely to raise it.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Presuming the demand for labor is decreasing in wages seems reasonable.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
There are, however, arguments pointing in this direction (by analogy w/ the literature on minimum wages). See the book "What Do Unions Do?"
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Unlikely to have efficient bargaining between firms and unions and so a higher wage will lead to lower labor demand.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Higher compensation may reduce labor force participation of spouses or lead to earlier retirement. Income effect.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Only have to look to Western Europe to see the effects of increased unionization. Encourages outsourcing and increased capital intensity.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
same caveat as the last question
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Not sure what is meant by "net positive effect on employment." Unions raise wages, which pushes in the direction of lower employment LEVELS
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Unionization can have a direct, positive effect in imperfectly competitive markets, and an indirect effect through a healthier economy.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I don't know what the argument here might be.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History