US

Japan’s Deflation

The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sufficiently extreme monetary policies could have created inflation. The point is whether that would have helped much. Perhaps.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The experts disagree on the role of the Bank of Japan.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Central banks lose control of the price level at the zero lower bound, when their reserves become close substitutes for government debt.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fed actions prove that hitting the zero bound on rates need not imply deflation. BoJ could have stopped this and should be held accountable
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
If alternative = sufficiently unconventional and committed.
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lower interest rates, purchases of long-term assets, and higher inflation target could have raises output and prices.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Must be directionally right, but recent US experience does not inspire certainty.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
A QE policy would likely have prevented the deflation.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History