International Climate Policy

Question A:

Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Green innovation in the private sector would be strongly stimulated by a substantial increase in public spending on R&D for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
These voluntary targets are probably better than nothing. But it is not clear how effective they will be. Politics will be important.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
question is unclear. voluntary by firms (will not work), voluntary by governments (will work a bit better)?
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Voters are often uninformed so can be tricked by politicians - for example Trump could ignore climate change by deceiving his supporters.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
insuficient incentives given the governments short time horizons
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
If US, EU and China voluntarily adopt policy and impose compensatory border taxes) effect could be as big as with binding global agreement.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Implemented rules of self-commitment may have an important role model effect, leading to spillovers to other countries.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
We achieved significant reductions with mostly national policies adopted by rich countries. But tragedy of commons means likely too little
-see background information here
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
These decisions have some moral and political weight.
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I think it would help. The effectiveness will depend a lot on the details.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Provided of course that the carbon price is not ridiculously low!
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Needed in addition to selective measures targeted at particularly carbon-intensive sectors.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
...that looks like a first-best outcome in a second best situation.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
A significant floor would not only provide incentives for reductions & innovations but also some policy certainty.
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Only if well designed. Countries have different market structures for trading/auctioning carbon, and reserve prices can backfire in some.
-see background information here
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Experience from traded SO2 permits in 1980s showed emission reductions were surprisingly cheap if firms faced common price for emissions
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Great policy idea, but politically obviously really difficult to get agreement on.
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It would be great, but highly unlikley to be accomplished politically. That's why voluntary agreements are probably the only game in town
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
It could be if it is structured properly. Government programs seem to have played a role reducing the cost of renewables.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Bandiera
Oriana Bandiera
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
There is a large literature showing that R&D support increases R&D, see for example "A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation"
-see background information here
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Guriev
Sergei Guriev
Sciences Po
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Not clear whether these are complements or substitutes.
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
It all depends on how the spending program is implemented. More centralized investment decisions may lead to less effectiveness.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Likely, given substantial policy & technological uncertainty on one hand. Prudent, given the urgency of the matter on the other hand
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Relative uncertainty is not associated with the qualitative claim, but the quantitative claim ("strongly")
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Propper
Carol Propper
Imperial College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Rasul
Imran Rasul
University College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reis
Ricardo Reis
London School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Public R&D spending tends to crowd in private R&D spending.
-see background information here
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Not clear that it will be "strongly" stimulated.
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Storesletten
Kjetil Storesletten
University of Minnesota
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
R&D subsidies would be effective at stimulating innovation. Especially if combined with high price of emissions
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Lots of evidence supports these policies; e.g. https://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/JVR_PP_LO_6.15_FINAL.pdf webinar an
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Yes but there is big risk of capture.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History