US

Innovation and Growth

Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
The right answer is "uncertain". But "disagree" emphasizes that the view that we are running out of ideas, which has little basis.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Technical innovation will continue to be rapid, but resource and environmental constraints in a crowded world will hinder per capita growth.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
That's a ridiculously high bar to cross, since no other period in human history has ever seen anything like the last 150 years!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
The average per capita growth rate over the last 150 years only 1.7-1.8% which would not need to transformative innovations to happen.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
genomics, robotic, communication.... Emerging economies will increasingly contribute to global R&D spending with positive spillover effects.
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
The answer is certainly uncertain
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
The long term declining is very worrying. But it also might be that we are not measuring quality or new goods well.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hard to predict 100 years ahead.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
i'm unaware of any serious evidence that would help one formulate a reliable opinion.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
The cone of dispersion for productivity forecasts is so wide that no such statement has any support. Che sera, sera.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Economists are bad at predicting the far future. Technological advances have been amazing in the last few years and anything is possible.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
I am certain that anyone sensible should be uncertain. If one can predict innovation well, one should not be an economist but an inventor.
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Innovation need not slow. The vast changes in what we consume and how we work make "income" a poor measure of wellbeing over a century.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Last 150 years have seen huge increases in living standards. Similar future increases an even bet given IT revolution and human ingenuity.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
We would have never forecast most the past breakthroughs, no reason to think we are any better at doing so now. No way this is knowable.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Wow - tough question. Maybe if the answer is a clear no, we can reconvene the panel in 150 years to discuss.
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Who knows?
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Uncertaint = unpredicatable. The unpredictability of fundamental invention is amply demonstrated from theory and history.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Unimagined innovations have revolutionized life in the past, and I suspect they will continue to do so.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
The surprises of the last 150 years should make clear the folly of trying to forecast the next 150.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
History suggests optimism, but 150 years is a mighty long time.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Very hard to predict this far in the future.
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Views on this are pure speculation. There is no economic theory or empirical evidence to inform the issue.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
I don't know how anyone could have any confidence in this sort of prediction. Good that no one can be proven wrong.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
1
Bio/Vote History
Billions of people escaping poverty unleashes billions of minds for innovation. Hence my optimism. But tempered with much uncertainty.