Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The right answer is "uncertain". But "disagree" emphasizes that the view that we are running out of ideas, which has little basis.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Technical innovation will continue to be rapid, but resource and environmental constraints in a crowded world will hinder per capita growth.
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
That's a ridiculously high bar to cross, since no other period in human history has ever seen anything like the last 150 years!
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The average per capita growth rate over the last 150 years only 1.7-1.8% which would not need to transformative innovations to happen.
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
genomics, robotic, communication.... Emerging economies will increasingly contribute to global R&D spending with positive spillover effects.
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The answer is certainly uncertain
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
The long term declining is very worrying. But it also might be that we are not measuring quality or new goods well.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to predict 100 years ahead.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
i'm unaware of any serious evidence that would help one formulate a reliable opinion.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The cone of dispersion for productivity forecasts is so wide that no such statement has any support. Che sera, sera.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Economists are bad at predicting the far future. Technological advances have been amazing in the last few years and anything is possible.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I am certain that anyone sensible should be uncertain. If one can predict innovation well, one should not be an economist but an inventor.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Innovation need not slow. The vast changes in what we consume and how we work make "income" a poor measure of wellbeing over a century.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Last 150 years have seen huge increases in living standards. Similar future increases an even bet given IT revolution and human ingenuity.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
We would have never forecast most the past breakthroughs, no reason to think we are any better at doing so now. No way this is knowable.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Wow - tough question. Maybe if the answer is a clear no, we can reconvene the panel in 150 years to discuss.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Who knows?
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Uncertaint = unpredicatable. The unpredictability of fundamental invention is amply demonstrated from theory and history.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Unimagined innovations have revolutionized life in the past, and I suspect they will continue to do so.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The surprises of the last 150 years should make clear the folly of trying to forecast the next 150.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
History suggests optimism, but 150 years is a mighty long time.
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Very hard to predict this far in the future.
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Views on this are pure speculation. There is no economic theory or empirical evidence to inform the issue.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
I don't know how anyone could have any confidence in this sort of prediction. Good that no one can be proven wrong.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Billions of people escaping poverty unleashes billions of minds for innovation. Hence my optimism. But tempered with much uncertainty.
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