Question A:
The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
0%
0%
2%
10%
50%
29%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
3%
9%
52%
37%
Question B:
The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
10%
0%
0%
45%
26%
14%
5%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
47%
29%
18%
6%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Long term investments should be timed strategically, when the economy is slowing --not at 4.3% unemployment
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The need to improve infrastructure in the US is independent of Keynesian stimulus reasons.
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Despite recent improvements in the economy that reduce the need for fiscal stimulus, better infrastructure is critical to economic growth.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Let's not forget about governance--how the projects get chosen matters a lot
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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U.S. infrastructure is in bad shape and fixing it can improve lives and provide the foundation for a stronger economy.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Poor condition + reasonable interest rate = positive NPV
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The need is there, and interest rates are low.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am sure there are very useful projects. I am not sure those are the ones that would get funded.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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we have to do it and might as well start now. only hesitation is potential horse trades in congress to make it happen.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I would expand to include other networks as well, not just 19th C.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some projects, such as railroads, generate enough positive externalities to justify federal govt. subsidies. Not sure we need more roads.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Our infrastructure is well below world standards.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is a no brainer. Deferred maintenance always costs you more in the end, not to mention safety issues.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The trick, of course, is to choose high return projects. There is a well-documented set of infrastructure projects that meet this test.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The total size of the deficit is not irrelevant. For example, critical non-infrastructure spending could be crowded out by politics.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The budget deficit and national debt matter and so I would accompany infrastructure spending with higher taxes, particularly on the rich.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Substantial loss of revenues will require cuts in spending. Where? Defense? Medical research? Infrastructure? All will be at risk.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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big deficit financing means Fed will likely raise rates faster. looser fiscal policy several years ago would have been helpful, less so now
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if benefits are high, costs could be high due to marginal deadweight loss of future increases in marginal tax rates.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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At near full employment, a big debt increase is not a good idea. But cutting taxes now isn't a good idea either.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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What happened to budget constraint? US needs public investment, but not irrespective of fiscal conditions.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It would be a superb investment to finance infrastructure with tax revenue, but the investments are imperative regardless of tax policy.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increase in real interest rate paid on US debt may cause projects with positive NPV in the current environment to become negative NPV.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Given that the economy is near capacity, a big tax cut on top of a big increase in spending would be unwise.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Tax smoothing is desirable. The argument for cutting taxes has to be based on cutting spending as well
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less certain because a deficit exploding tax cut will cause some problems but still, you gotta do what you gotta do.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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