US

Infrastructure

Question A:

Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
One needs to know how the projects will be financed.
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
18 different kinds of coffee but every way to get to them has a pothole
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
yes but possible there are relatively few places w infrastructure deficit (innovative proposal below) lots of opp's eff gains w pricing
-see background information here
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Serious overspending currently on rail. Roads and bridges need user charges. Not many true public goods that call for higher spending.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The best evidence with anything like a CAUSAL character suggests that this is untrue. There is lots of junk correlational evidence: ignore.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repairing bridges & roads would have been good to do over the last 5 years; the problem is nothing is really shovel ready so it takes time
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Many roads and bridges need repair.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Borrowing at negative interest rates and high unemployement rates to stop bridges from collapsing is as close as we get to a no brainer.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Both of these statements, of course, can be true. The opportunity can be squandered.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Average return is likely to be because of underspending in many activities, but many will be adopted because of politics and have <0 returns
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
There will be some bad projects, but current infrastructure needs are very large.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Some will have low returns, of course. But the mean and median rate of return will likely be favorable.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
"Many" will have low returns, because the political process doesn't always do a great job picking projects. But some will be very positive.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
"Some" for sure, but many sounds like a majority.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Some of the returns may be lower than those in the private sector, but it may hard be get needed infrastructure but for the government.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Have you been to John Murtha airport?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
currently infra spending does not aim to maximize returns. c. winston research suggests returns are declining but more research is critical
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
True for rail. For other infrastructure, the main problem is not the spending, but rather the failure to impose appropriate user charges.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Best credibly CAUSAL evidence suggests this statement is, broadly speaking, correct. Of course, there are exceptions.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on what "many" means, but dollar weighted we do overpay too often. See Calif high speed train
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
interests rates are very low---suggesting that returns from public investment might well be good
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Depends importantly on whether earmarks play a significant role.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
In the past both good and bad projects have been funded. The proportion of each? Hard to say without more careful study.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
All depends on what you mean by many. Any portfolio of projects will included duds, in both private and public sector. Change many to some.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
"Many" would surely have low returns. There are difficult empirical problems, but it seems historical experience on average has been good.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History