US

Inequality, Populism, and Redistribution

Question A:

Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Unshared gains from growth, esp when resulting in part from the political power of the rich, destroy trust in democratic institutions.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Autor, Dorn, Hanson, Majlesi "Importing Political Polarization" document this for the China Shock. Point applies to inequality generally.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
A bigger problem might be that incomes haven’t increased meaningfully for the poor nor the middle class
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
This question and the other two do not rely on my expertise as an economist. They require value judgments or political science expertise.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Look out the *$%# window.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
We don't understand the rise of populism as a general matter
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Political power often comes with wealth. The ideal is "one person, one vote". "One dollar, one vote" is not democracy.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Technological change is the driving force. It has disrupted many developed economies including those with less inequality.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
inequality is an endogenous response to other factor and it is the underlying forces that are creating stress
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
No the only thing but very important -- esp. on a broad definition of "inequality."
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Inequality coupled with a lack of mobility is especially noxious.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Alternative explanation is poor performance of the bottom of the earnings distribution
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Not just inequality, but it is a major part of the story.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
A better social safety net would help. What is needed is not just fiscal redistribution but good jobs (high-wage employment opportunities)
-see background information here
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
i am not sire what "populism" means we should stop us g this very vague word
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Genie is out of the bottle. Populism rising even in social welfare states.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
They need to be designed with a sensitivity to what the pain points are, not what we assume they must be.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
These questions are pretty unfocused.....what definition of populism is relevant here?
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
Resentment from a belief that other people are benefiting from government programs is part of populism
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Universal, affordablr healthcare a central example.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Trump's "populist" policy included a reduction in corporate taxation, which will increase inequality. Populists don't seem to care.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Lower inequality in Germany, Italy and, particularly, France (relative to the U.S.) has not limited populism.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
too vague to say much. which policies, what is "populism", are taxes a policy?
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hard to know how specific redistributive policies will affect political sentiments
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
But the meaning of "populism" is unclear. I assume means right-wing authoritarian, but could be any-wing.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Some may be necessary but redistribution far from sufficient and could be counter-productive if taken too far or done wrong.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It's not necessarily $ expenditures that are needed but ways to rebalance power to boost pre-tax incomes of working class (min wage, unions)
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The sources of populism are complicated and not well understood, but addressing inequality should be part of an effective antidote.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Depends on specifics of policies
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hard to be too confident, since symbols often matter more than substance.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
The redistribution has to be designed well in order to achieve legitimacy.

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
More spending for a more generous and rational social safety net, job creation programs and education are vital. This needs more tax revenue
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
I think these policies are worth enacting, even though they probably won't limit rise of populism.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the choice of policies.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Governments should address inequality but I am not sure we have enough evidence of what "causes" populism.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the policy. Some "anti-populist" policies could impinge on free speech. Redistribution or education could be effective.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends on the particulars. See Barry Eichengreen, "The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance & Political Reaction in the Modern Era"
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
the intended definition of populism is too broad here. and, i don't think we know which policies affect populism.
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
We don't know what those would be
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
You left off the choice of higher taxes - it doesnt have to come from more debt or less other spending.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Government should focus on doing its job in providing education and safety. Populism is partly based on a view that government is not.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Not sure what the right solution is, but more redistribution has not helped in France and Western Europe.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
same general concerns as with the second question
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Would prefer to evaluate policies based on whether they broaden opportunity vs whether they achieve short term political objective
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Aside from being bad policy, unclear would help.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
With low for long interest rates it's feasible -- and the rise of populism partly represents market failures that government could address.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
I would prefer to see governments address inequality, but would need more policy details to have in informed judgement.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
The objective of economic policy should be increasing welfare and lower inequality but not to directly affect success of populism.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
This is an argument for politics over substance.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
Bio/Vote History
It's unclear what those policies would be
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History