Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A:

Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Poorer people have much less security all around and will tend to suffer much more than people higher up the income distribution.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
I would imagine working from home is much less of an option for many poor individuals. And they might also face more prevalent layoffs.
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
poor more likely to be exposed to the virus if they work. more likely to lose income if laid off.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Absolutely see this blog piece on exactly that
-see background information here
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Though depends very much on the sector and status (wage contract, independent worker, etc)
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
In Switzerland many low income workers are better protected than higher in the income scale l. Those who are not will suffer most
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The word relatively is important in your question. I assume you mean a percentage decline in income.
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
My reading of the evidence is that it suggest the COVID-19 crisis will increase inequality on many dimensions.
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
-see background information here
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Job loss likely disproportionately affecting low-skilled workers especially in affected service sectors
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
The answer must be country-specific. E.g., Germany has automatic stabilizers, like Kurzarbeit, making small entrepreneurs the main losers.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Quite a bit of evidence has emerged for US. Effects in EU likely similar, though less extreme. Depends also on profession.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Some groups will gain, but on average low-income workers are more likely to suffer unemployment, lower incomes, and less access to amenities
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Wealthier and more educated people tend to have more flexible jobs that can be done remotely.
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
True for labor income, false for capital income.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on the details and the implementation of the policies. Short term contracts, gig economy likely to fall through cracks.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
lower income workers are more likely to be in the service sector and these industries have been hit hardest.
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Low-income workers tend to have less job security but income from capital could drop sharply
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Freelancers and self employed are also hit very hard
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Workers in low paid sectors such as retail & hospitality have been more affected. Well paid workers more likely to be able to work from home
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
It depends significantly on which country in Europe. In many I don't think there will be much difference across the income distribution.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I'm not aware of systematic evidence, but in Massachusetts, there has been a massive differential response by private and public schools.
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
obvious differences in access to net, in ability of the family to help study
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The wealthy can more easily home-school
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This will be revealing and thus rather positive if it does not last too long and lessons are learned.
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on the school systems in different countries
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Access will probably be similar, family background will make the difference
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
access to broadband; poor home-study environment
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Again, country-specific access to quality education is not the problem, but family support in using the access - which is income-related.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Both groups will take a hit but my guess is hit for low-inc will be relatively larger. Many relevant factors (internet) correlated w/ inc.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Home-schooling is hard work, even for highly-educated parents, and in most cases a poor substitute for school
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
The lockdown may it harder for rich kids to segregate into private or foreign schools. School choice may become local and egalitarian.
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
All kids, rich and poor, can learn equally from free online resources like Khan Academy.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Lock down magnifies inequality due to family environment.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Peer effects are very bad for the disadvantaged groups- they are often better off at home
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The extent of support being provided by schools to students working from home will vary depending on school and home resources.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I think providing a safety net from the effects of the pandemic is very important. This is for it's own sake but also to stop bankruptcies.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Policies to reduce pandemic-related deaths are essential, but pandemic-related spikes in poverty will also cause a lot of deaths.
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The priority should be to fight the pandemic, not inequality. But, given that, anything that can be done to fight inequality is desirable.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
The priority should be restoring the economy. Once this is done we can focus on inequality, funding this by taxes on growth.
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Otherwise social distancing is non-sutainable.
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
In the short run it is not a priority. It can be corrected once the medical and economic catastrophe is dealt with
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
No. The widening gap of competitivity between Europe's north and south, resulting from huge differences in aid programs, needs attention.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
For econ policy, inequality should be one priority, but not only one. Size of the pie matters too. Inequality at national & EU level matters
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
This is a value judgement, though one that likely commands broad support. Putting it into practice will be very difficult though.
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Saving lives and restarting the economy are much higher priorities. Moreover, the pandemic has reduced wealth inequality.
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Need for social justice very high as low income workers often on front line. Inequality exacerbated by crisis in a number of dimensions.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Inequality concern is reflected in design of govt support packages such as the UK job retention scheme
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Growth first
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Priority is getting the economy back working again. Some of the emergency policies however could be kept on and could reduce inequality.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
There can't be too many priorities.
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History