US

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis

Question A:

With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question C:

The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Low-income self-employed will be hardest hit. Effects are generally unequalizing, but the additional government programs are progressive
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
CARES provide valuable stopgap, but employment has collapsed in low-wage, in-person service jobs--and perhaps a long, slow rebound
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
I think this may have a different answer if it was formulated in terms of welfare. I think in welfare terms the poor are really hurting
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
It depends on the totality of programs.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Many, particularly undocumented workers, get little or nothing from the $2 trillion. "Bigger" means more meaningful reduction, not percent.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Could be, but the stimulus measures are pretty progressive.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
More exposed outside the home, less distancing in the home and more likely to have a risk factor.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
at the very bottom, if you can get signed up for unemployment and you get the bonus checks this might not be true. higher up probably is
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hit on pre-tax income is much larger at the bottom, government support offsets some of it but imperfectly and heterogeneously
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
High-income workers are typically more likely to be able to continue working, as well as to have non-wage income.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Undocumented workers, who can't get unemployment, are particularly at risk.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Adding $600 to weekly unemployment checks will raise income for many low-income workers. So it is mixed
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Mainly yes but it depends on: whether the worker is gig; kept on the payroll under CARES; obtains the $600 bonus.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Lots of heterogeneity, but the overall pattern is that better paid workers have better opportunities to continue work.

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
School resources, family resources and living arrangements make online learning much harder for low-income kids
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Unequal PCs/Internet is small part of problem. Adults with skills to home-school in place of teachers are in high income/education HHs.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
If low-income had close to zero access before lockdown, it would be hard to make the gap even bigger! I don't know the data well enough.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
With all schools closed, including the good ones, education currently depends on parents
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Some districts have ~100% internet coverage. Some middle-income districts have much less coverage.
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
how does remote learning work for people without wifi and computers?
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Strongly Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Remote education exacerbates the effects that differences in low-income and high-income environments to have on education.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Parents education become more important, underfunded schools have worse infrastructure, high cost of cell and cable service in US.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
With education online and coffee shops and libraries closed, students without high-speed broadband are essentially shut out.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Both access to on line learning and support within the household.

Question C Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Evidence from New York seems to support this.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Data already make this clear. But highly-educated medical workers (+ less credentialed medical aids) also bearing disproportionate burden.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Low income comes with low initial health and health-care access, and close physical living conditions, among other mortality disadvantages.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Closer living quarters. More need to work near others. Factors abound. Preliminary statistics bear this out.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Use your eyes.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This has been confirmed by empirical studies in DC and elsewhere
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
so far the evidence is awful
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Disadvantaged individuals are more likely to have risk factors, both health and environmental, that make Covid-19 deadly.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This difference would have been less pronounced if the US had universal health care.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It would take more than 140 characters to list all the reasons why this is true.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Also on the elderly!
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
At the moment, true. Longer term it depends on whether any group can in protect itself from the virus.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The evidence on this already is strong.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
That's how our current health care system works. Perhaps this will prompt radical improvement?