US

Inequality and Skills

One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
But, importantly, it is not the only factor. The other three are: slower growth in the supply of skills; institutional changes; and trade.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
There is a lot of evidence that technical change has favored more skilled workers over the past 3 decades
-see background information here
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
It's not the only factor. Two others: slowing supply of skilled workers, and (probably) distorted pay-setting at the very top.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
There are certainly many other factors, such as the tax code, etc.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Strongly Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Increasing demand for skill is an underlying factor driving increased inequality though institutional changes are also important.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
I think there is excellent evidence on this, though it is also clear that much else is going on. Nor does the tech story imply benignity.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This partial explanation does not lessen the policy importance of addressing the downside effects, including loss of social cohesion.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
But that is only the demand side. The slowdown in the supply of these skill sets is just as important (or more). You need the SS side too.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The data are pretty obvious that this is a key factor. Not the only one, but a very significant one.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Seems self-evident but technological change cannot be measured directly; is this a falsifiable hypothesis? what would Karl Popper say?
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Managers and financial salesmen account for most of the earnings growth at the top end. Not clear that tech change is responsible.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
It's likely that technological progress has favored high aptitude people. The evidence is only indirect,however: it's a residual explanation
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hard to quantify the exact contribution, but it is undoubtedly big. Also tricky in that it partially interacts with education and trade.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The distribution has spread out at all relevant deciles. The question that remains is why the skill gap is not closing.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Although this is a common view, the causal factors are too complex to untangle unambiguously.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Although there is some evidence to the contrary, the nature of occupational change and returns to schooling suggest it's important.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Big debate on institutions vs. technology in labor economics. Technology is too narrow an explanation as it interacts with institutions.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Investment-specific technical change together with capital-skill complementarity explains much of the increase in the skill premium.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Compared to what? More than 1% have good tech skills. Education disparities and tax policies surely more important.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
This is hard to quantify, but the limited evidence is supportive.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The statement is likely to be true but it does not address why the technology moved that way.