One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
But, importantly, it is not the only factor. The other three are: slower growth in the supply of skills; institutional changes; and trade.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is a lot of evidence that technical change has favored more skilled workers over the past 3 decades
-see background information here |
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
It's not the only factor. Two others: slowing supply of skilled workers, and (probably) distorted pay-setting at the very top.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are certainly many other factors, such as the tax code, etc.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Increasing demand for skill is an underlying factor driving increased inequality though institutional changes are also important.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
I think there is excellent evidence on this, though it is also clear that much else is going on. Nor does the tech story imply benignity.
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
This partial explanation does not lessen the policy importance of addressing the downside effects, including loss of social cohesion.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
But that is only the demand side. The slowdown in the supply of these skill sets is just as important (or more). You need the SS side too.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
The data are pretty obvious that this is a key factor. Not the only one, but a very significant one.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Seems self-evident but technological change cannot be measured directly; is this a falsifiable hypothesis? what would Karl Popper say?
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Managers and financial salesmen account for most of the earnings growth at the top end. Not clear that tech change is responsible.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
It's likely that technological progress has favored high aptitude people. The evidence is only indirect,however: it's a residual explanation
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to quantify the exact contribution, but it is undoubtedly big. Also tricky in that it partially interacts with education and trade.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The distribution has spread out at all relevant deciles. The question that remains is why the skill gap is not closing.
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Although this is a common view, the causal factors are too complex to untangle unambiguously.
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cecilia Rouse |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Although there is some evidence to the contrary, the nature of occupational change and returns to schooling suggest it's important.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Big debate on institutions vs. technology in labor economics. Technology is too narrow an explanation as it interacts with institutions.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Investment-specific technical change together with capital-skill complementarity explains much of the increase in the skill premium.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Compared to what? More than 1% have good tech skills. Education disparities and tax policies surely more important.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
This is hard to quantify, but the limited evidence is supportive.
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
The statement is likely to be true but it does not address why the technology moved that way.
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