The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Perhaps top 1% share (especially in wealth). Because of the induced stock market boom, but this is uncertain. Certainly not 90-10.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Monetary policy affects asset prices -> redistributes wealth (if assets not held symmetrically).See e.g. "Redistribute monetary policy" 2012
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are likely distributional effects but unpacking the full extent of them is a continuing area of research. I attach one useful survey.
-see background information here |
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
How could it not have? No idea how much, but why would the distribution of income be invariant to such a thing?
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
A lot of low to mid income workers would have had no jobs absent the Fed's policy. This is a first order impact on the 90-10 income spread.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Monetary policy has distributional effects; it should however not be made on that basis.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
compared to what? if the fed hadn't cut rates to 0+QE, the recession would have been deeper and that would have made inequality even worse
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
easy to tell stories of an effect and stories of no effect-- i'm unaware of meaningful evidence.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
That policy had essentially no macro effects considering effects on long-term bonds and those of funding with reserves at above-market rates
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Quantitative easing has boosted asset prices, reduced interest rates and lowered unemployment. The overall effect on inequality is unclear.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The 90th percentile is below the wealth level most affected so the answer is not obvious.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
"Income" includes capital gains. The low interest rates have surely contributed to the substantial capital gains that accrued to the rich.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Technology, globalization and regulation are much bigger contributors.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Probably helped the bottom a bit, but monetary policy would be way, way down on the list of factors affecting inequality.
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Agree with some caveats.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fed policy probably helped stock market investors, but it also probably helped employment. Unclear which effect was stronger.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fed policy may have had an effect, but this is swamped by the effects of other government policies and structural changes in the economy.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Distribution effects of monetary policy are difficult to determine.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
I'm pretty sure the 90-10 income ratio has been affected, but I'm not sure in which direction and I doubt the magnitude is big.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
How would anyone know? Must be wrong but which way?
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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