The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
5%
0%
21%
40%
14%
2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
33%
42%
24%
1%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Perhaps top 1% share (especially in wealth). Because of the induced stock market boom, but this is uncertain. Certainly not 90-10.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
Monetary policy affects asset prices -> redistributes wealth (if assets not held symmetrically).See e.g. "Redistribute monetary policy" 2012
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are likely distributional effects but unpacking the full extent of them is a continuing area of research. I attach one useful survey.
-see background information here |
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
How could it not have? No idea how much, but why would the distribution of income be invariant to such a thing?
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
A lot of low to mid income workers would have had no jobs absent the Fed's policy. This is a first order impact on the 90-10 income spread.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
Monetary policy has distributional effects; it should however not be made on that basis.
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
compared to what? if the fed hadn't cut rates to 0+QE, the recession would have been deeper and that would have made inequality even worse
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
easy to tell stories of an effect and stories of no effect-- i'm unaware of meaningful evidence.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
That policy had essentially no macro effects considering effects on long-term bonds and those of funding with reserves at above-market rates
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Quantitative easing has boosted asset prices, reduced interest rates and lowered unemployment. The overall effect on inequality is unclear.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The 90th percentile is below the wealth level most affected so the answer is not obvious.
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
"Income" includes capital gains. The low interest rates have surely contributed to the substantial capital gains that accrued to the rich.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Technology, globalization and regulation are much bigger contributors.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Probably helped the bottom a bit, but monetary policy would be way, way down on the list of factors affecting inequality.
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Agree with some caveats.
-see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fed policy probably helped stock market investors, but it also probably helped employment. Unclear which effect was stronger.
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fed policy may have had an effect, but this is swamped by the effects of other government policies and structural changes in the economy.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Distribution effects of monetary policy are difficult to determine.
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
I'm pretty sure the 90-10 income ratio has been affected, but I'm not sure in which direction and I doubt the magnitude is big.
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
How would anyone know? Must be wrong but which way?
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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