Question A:
The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is giving significantly more political power to the wealthy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
0%
0%
2%
10%
40%
31%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
2%
7%
44%
46%
Question B:
The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is having a significantly negative effect on intergenerational social mobility.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
0%
0%
6%
13%
54%
10%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
8%
13%
66%
13%
Question C:
The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is a major threat to capitalism.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
0%
4%
2%
31%
42%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
6%
3%
30%
53%
8%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Who has political power is a difficult question. Political events such as Brexit and Trump seem to suggest the opposite perhaps.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not obvious - in the UK and US Brexit and Trump were movements mostly supported by the poor and not the educated, informed or wealthy.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I am more concerned about the political power given big corporations
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some work in economics consistent with the relation but evidence in political science viewed more mixed. See links below.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The premise seems false. Income inequality has been decreasing recently in the U.S., due to faster wage growth for low-income workers.
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||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Problem is much bigger in US (and to lesser extent, Uk) than elsewhere
|
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is particularly true in countries that do not have state-funded political expenses and so donations from rich people are important.
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||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Money and political influence are sibblings
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
There seems to be some evidence of this in some places. The wealthy are able to send their children to private school, tutor them, and so on
|
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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in the previous question, we were talking about the 0.1% richest. In this one, more like the 10% richest.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
this is simply mechanical
|
||||
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Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is less clear, but likely if the supe-rich attach lower importance to education and economic progress of low income persons.
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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...because access to education and networks are often wealth-dependent
|
||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This is Kruger's Great Gatsby Curve. See his CAP speech for some references in support.
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The premise seems false. Income inequality has been decreasing recently in the U.S., due to faster wage growth for low-income workers.
|
||||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Causation likely run both ways here.
|
||||
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Chettys work suggests that this isn’t the case. It is certainly a risk though
|
||||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This seems likely to be correct but I'm not aware of research demonstrating it.
|
||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I think it's difficult to say whether this promotes or retards competition.
|
||||
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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|
||||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trump and Brexit are prime examples - both act to damage free markets and capitalism with damaging populist policies.
|
||||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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||||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
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||||
|
Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Sergei Guriev |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
A threat to its effectiveness; but probably not to the survival of capitalism
|
||||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
...because unequal access to society's resources may pave the way for populists and extremist parties.
|
||||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
|
Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Major is a bit strong. It is not wealth per se, but the sense of fairness, so how the rich obtained it. Inequality can create ripple effects
-see background information here |
||||
|
Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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||||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
|
Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The premise seems false. Income inequality has been decreasing recently in the U.S., due to faster wage growth for low-income workers.
|
||||
|
Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Imran Rasul |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
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||||
|
Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It is a threat, but not as major as the general slowdown in productivity growth. And climate change, pandemics and defense are bigger probs
|
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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||||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm not sure anything is really a major threat to capitalism. To paraphrase Churchill, it's the worst system apart from all the others.
|
||||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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