Increasing Returns

Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.

Responses

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
30%
4%
0%
2%
12%
34%
18%

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
1%
13%
54%
32%
Participant
University
Vote
Confidence
Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Not exactly sure what the question is suggesting.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
The fact that ideas are nonrival points to aggregate increasing returns to scale in the production of goods (not in technical change)
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
I am not sure this is just due to ideas being non-rival.
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Key idea in modern economics
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
The premise is OK but the inference seems too vaguely sweeping...
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
For motivation, see the brilliant document provided by the prize committee! :-) IRS also requires at least CRS in non-idea inputs.
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Non-rivalry gives rise to increasing returns to scale; most ideas are non-rival (unless protected) and central to technological change.
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Ideas can be protected, and imitation is costly, but the statement is broadly correct, with huge implications for R&D and antitrust policy
-see background information here
-see background information here
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Ideas are non-rival hence do not get constant returns to scale at macro-level because standard replication argument breaks down.
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Assuming the question means increasing returns in production of output (as distinct from production of new technologies)
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Nonrivalry of ideas is important for growth and means there are positive externalities to research. Does not have to mean economy-wide IRS.
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History