US

Increasing Returns

Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Fixed costs & market power in tech are a fact of life. But this need not correspond to simple IRS b/o duplication & business/idea stealing
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
I don't know what "essential" means. And ideas are rival in a market economy with a patent system.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Spoiler alert: Anti-science is especially dumb
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Yes, if you mean that Af(x) has increasing returns in A and x. Not restricted to market economies. Generation, copy of ideas is important.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
An idea is non-rival and having one requires a large upfront cost (as in discovering the cure to a disease). Increasing returns follows.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
This also means large potential gains to globalization.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
One of the central insights of economics.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The increasing returns created by nonrival ideas is perhaps the leading contender for explaining economic growth.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
True if we assume, as it seems natural, that doubling all rivalrous inputs doubles output.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The key point is that developing an idea is a fixed cost, not that ideas are nonrival. Conclusion also follows if ideas do not transfer.
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
This is the key source of improving material well-being over time; disruptive as it can be.