Question A:
The wave of immigration to Germany after 2015 (and up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine) has been a net positive for the country's economy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
24%
2%
4%
2%
33%
30%
4%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
9%
4%
36%
42%
9%
Question B:
Immigration to EU countries has been a net positive for government finances, adding substantially more in tax revenues than the increased costs associated with integration of immigrants.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
24%
2%
2%
7%
33%
26%
7%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
5%
11%
36%
36%
13%
Question C:
Given Europe's low and falling fertility rates (from seven million births per year in 1960 to four million today), maintaining its position as a world economic power will require increased immigration over the medium term.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
24%
0%
0%
13%
11%
41%
11%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
20%
9%
56%
16%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I m not knowledgeable enough about the German economy to have an opinion whether the particular immigration from 2015-2022 was beneficial or not. Probably skilled immigration and for particular sectors, such as elderly care, could be going forward.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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E.g. no associated increase in unemployment…
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are pluses and minuses. Plus: Immigration has been largely about young people who, over the longer term, are likely to contribute to economic output. Minus: without consistent immigration policy, many people arriving are lowly/non-educated, implying high integration costs.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If we take GDP as measure for net positive, then evidence supports the statement. Small pos. effect (see links). Effects on medium & long-term growth depend on how migrants are integrated into labor markets. 60% of 2015 arrivers in Germany were in jobs by 2019 (see links)
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Migration from low-trust cultures has been a massive negative; the decline in public safety has dramatically reduced social cohesion, raised political polarization. Social welfare spending on migrants is very high and detrimental to the country's competitiveness.
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, I am not knowledgeable enough about the specifics but immigration if done in a managed way can have these characteristics.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Integration into the labor force has proved relatively long on average.
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obviously, the key question is how well the integration of immigrants into labor market works. This is different country by country.
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see previous question: integration costs are far higher than economic benefits, let alone tax income. In some countries, like Germany, immigrants are overwhelmingly on the asylum track of immigration, which leads to long periods in which joining the workforce is prohibited.
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Evidence supports the statement. Migrants compare favorably to natives in terms of payments and contributions (see links). Their favorable age structure is an important factor.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not "substantially" more, taking a present value intertemporal perspective.
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While the EU could benefit significantly from well structured immigration policies, the past decade was marred by very poorly planned migration policies and insufficient resources to integrate migrants effectively into productive economic activities.
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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all the disaggregated studies (Denmark, Holland, France) suggest low-skill migration is a net negative; for sending countries poorer than the host country, on average the receipts-transfers to new migrants are on net negative across the life cycle
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A lot will depend on what happens culturally, which is difficult to predict. If people form relationships more and have more children then we could be back to previous levels of fertility. Back in the 1960s and 1970s, overpopulation was regarded as the major problem.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There's litte uncertainty about demographic dynamics. Europe faces a choice between to I's: Immigration or Irrelevance.
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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two points. Can sustain growth per capita without immigration. Second, politically unrealistic to hope that immigration will offset domestic demographics.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maristella Botticini |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Other parts of the world will also face falling fertility rates going forward (or already face them now).
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Sergei Guriev |
Sciences Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aging populations are the fate of all countries in the world, sooner or later. Staying productive and powerful when population age is rising is possible. It requires flexible social institutions, like gliding retirement age, holding the ratio of workers to pensioners constant
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See very powerful evidence in the link below
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carol Propper |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Imran Rasul |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Ricardo Reis |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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(i) no clear empirical relation between the size of population and economic growth (scale effects) (ii) Europe is currently quite high population density, (iii) the decline in fertility is not inevitable, and can change.
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kjetil Storesletten |
University of Minnesota | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Skilled young migrants are a bit net benefit. Europe need them. A point-based immigration system could deliver the needed high-skilled immigration
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Silvana Tenreyro |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rick Van der Ploeg |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Labour is but one factor of production
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Europe's population is already small; its strength is its unique culture and diversity of indigenous cultures; slight extensions of working ages can counter pressures in the social security systems. Great power status requires serious priority given to defence.
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear that immigration has to increase quantitatively. Quality also matters.
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