Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
29%
6%
2%
2%
0%
44%
17%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
4%
2%
0%
63%
30%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trump's election has put off many creative people who might otherwise be interested in moving to the US.
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The role of immigrants in U.S. innovation has been and continues to be very important. A decline in immigration will harm U.S. innovation.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Blocking Iranians has been very costly for Silicon Valley - there are many Iranian scientists, engineers and VC funders.
-see background information here |
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Migration is disproportionately by high and low skilled, less by middle skilled. Less entry of high skilled might stifle innovation.
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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on average really motivated people will still be able to get there
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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empirical evidence shows that immigrants are among the most successful US entrepreneurs
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I know a few excellent students who in earlier years would have applied for a top US school, and who now prefer to stay in Europe.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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President Trump is broadly disliked by highly educated people abroad and my GUESS is that these people think twice before moving to the U.S.
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Will have neg impact on US human capital, which has tight link to innovation. Magnitude less clear. Impact seen in applications for MBA prgs
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hostility to immigrants deters newcomers. Mainland European and Asian countries are seeking to benefit from this.
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trump's America is not appealing. On the other hand whether you want to go there or not depends on what your alternative is. Which varies.
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Kerr, U.S. High-Skilled Immigration, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, NBER Working Paper No. 19337
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many students and researchers are no longer interested in going to the US
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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