Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philippe Aghion |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trump's election has put off many creative people who might otherwise be interested in moving to the US.
|
||||
 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The role of immigrants in U.S. innovation has been and continues to be very important. A decline in immigration will harm U.S. innovation.
|
||||
 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Blocking Iranians has been very costly for Silicon Valley - there are many Iranian scientists, engineers and VC funders.
-see background information here |
||||
 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Migration is disproportionately by high and low skilled, less by middle skilled. Less entry of high skilled might stifle innovation.
|
||||
 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
on average really motivated people will still be able to get there
|
||||
 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
empirical evidence shows that immigrants are among the most successful US entrepreneurs
|
||||
 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I know a few excellent students who in earlier years would have applied for a top US school, and who now prefer to stay in Europe.
|
||||
 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
President Trump is broadly disliked by highly educated people abroad and my GUESS is that these people think twice before moving to the U.S.
|
||||
 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Will have neg impact on US human capital, which has tight link to innovation. Magnitude less clear. Impact seen in applications for MBA prgs
|
||||
 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Hostility to immigrants deters newcomers. Mainland European and Asian countries are seeking to benefit from this.
|
||||
 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Trump's America is not appealing. On the other hand whether you want to go there or not depends on what your alternative is. Which varies.
|
||||
 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
William Kerr, U.S. High-Skilled Immigration, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, NBER Working Paper No. 19337
|
||||
 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Many students and researchers are no longer interested in going to the US
|
||||
 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
