Immigration and Government Budgets

People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Allen
Franklin Allen
Imperial College London
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I'm not well informed about the demographics of all EU immigrants in the time period considered. Usually immigrants provide net benefits.
Antras
Pol Antras
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Though for some countries (such as Sweden) it is a bit less obvious than for others, especially if migrants do not integrate well.
Besley
Timothy J. Besley
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Blanchard
Olivier Blanchard
Peterson Institute
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Past may not be a good predictor. Depends on the composition, about which I know too little.
Bloom
Nicholas Bloom
Stanford
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Blundell
Richard William Blundell
University College London
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Typically younger adults and some with a relatively good educational background.
Bénassy-Quéré
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
Paris School of Economics
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
A bit less sure for refugees than for economic migrants
Carletti
Elena Carletti
Bocconi Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Danthine
Jean-Pierre Danthine
Paris School of Economics
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
To guarantee this outcome the States should invest generously in training and integrating the least qualified immigrants (refugees)
De Grauwe
Paul De Grauwe
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Eeckhout
Jan Eeckhout
UPF Barcelona
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Fehr
Ernst Fehr
Universität Zurich Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Freixas
Xavier Freixas
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Fuchs-Schündeln
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Galí
Jordi Galí
Barcelona GSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Garicano
Luis Garicano
LSE Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Giavazzi
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
it delends whether the question refers to immigrants who have been accepted as residents, under various, hats, or "economic migrants
Griffith
Rachel Griffith
University of Manchester
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guerrieri
Veronica Guerrieri
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Guiso
Luigi Guiso
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Honohan
Patrick Honohan
Trinity College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Javorcik
Beata Javorcik
University of Oxford
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Kleven
Henrik Kleven
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Krahnen
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Goethe University Frankfurt
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
As employment rate among migrants goes up over time, and much of taxation is indirect anyway, chances are that the statement comes true.
Krusell
Per Krusell
Stockholm University
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
In welfare states with poor integration the net monetary gain is likely negative. This does not mean one should not allow asylum seekers.
Kőszegi
Botond Kőszegi
Central European University
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
La Ferrara
Eliana La Ferrara
Harvard Kennedy
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Leuz
Christian Leuz
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Too early to tell. Labor mkt outcomes often worse for long time. Demographics are plus. Much depends on fast integration into lab mkt.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Mayer
Thierry Mayer
Sciences-Po
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Meghir
Costas Meghir
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Neary
Peter Neary
Oxford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Simple demographics: all the studies I know show that, on average, immigrants are younger, healthier and have fewer dependents than natives
O'Rourke
Kevin O'Rourke
Oxford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Pagano
Marco Pagano
Università di Napoli Federico II
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Pastor
Lubos Pastor
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Persson
Torsten Persson
Stockholm University
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Pissarides
Christopher Pissarides
London School of Economics and Political Science Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Portes
Richard Portes
London Business School
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Excellent research on this issue produced for UK Migration Advisory Committee and available on their website.
Prendergast
Canice Prendergast
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Reichlin
Lucrezia Reichlin
London Business School
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Repullo
Rafael Repullo
CEMFI
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Rey
Hélène Rey
London Business School
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Migrants likely to be young and eager to find jobs.
Schoar
Antoinette Schoar
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Migrants to Europe are often not allowed to work for years. Delayed entry into the labor force can have negative effects on integration
Sturm
Daniel Sturm
London School of Economics
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Being younger and typically better educated their fiscal contribution tends to be positive as suggested by recent research for the UK.
-see background information here
Van Reenen
John Van Reenen
LSE
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
At least in terms of the UK, there have been generally positive fiscal benefits. See my work below or recent MAC report by alan Manning
-see background information here
Vickers
John Vickers
Oxford
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Voth
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Weder di Mauro
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
The Graduate Institute, Geneva Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Whelan
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Wyplosz
Charles Wyplosz
The Graduate Institute Geneva
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Zilibotti
Fabrizio Zilibotti
Yale University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
For demographic reasons.