People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
I'm not well informed about the demographics of all EU immigrants in the time period considered. Usually immigrants provide net benefits.
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Though for some countries (such as Sweden) it is a bit less obvious than for others, especially if migrants do not integrate well.
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
Past may not be a good predictor. Depends on the composition, about which I know too little.
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
Typically younger adults and some with a relatively good educational background.
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
A bit less sure for refugees than for economic migrants
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
To guarantee this outcome the States should invest generously in training and integrating the least qualified immigrants (refugees)
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Luis Garicano |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
it delends whether the question refers to immigrants who have been accepted as residents, under various, hats, or "economic migrants
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
As employment rate among migrants goes up over time, and much of taxation is indirect anyway, chances are that the statement comes true.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
In welfare states with poor integration the net monetary gain is likely negative. This does not mean one should not allow asylum seekers.
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Too early to tell. Labor mkt outcomes often worse for long time. Demographics are plus. Much depends on fast integration into lab mkt.
-see background information here -see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Simple demographics: all the studies I know show that, on average, immigrants are younger, healthier and have fewer dependents than natives
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
Excellent research on this issue produced for UK Migration Advisory Committee and available on their website.
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
Migrants likely to be young and eager to find jobs.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Migrants to Europe are often not allowed to work for years. Delayed entry into the labor force can have negative effects on integration
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
Being younger and typically better educated their fiscal contribution tends to be positive as suggested by recent research for the UK.
-see background information here |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
At least in terms of the UK, there have been generally positive fiscal benefits. See my work below or recent MAC report by alan Manning
-see background information here |
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
For demographic reasons.
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