Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
18%
3%
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0%
10%
30%
40%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
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9%
35%
56%
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Health spending per recipient can rise above current levels. Reform is needed to make health spending increases affordable given GDP growth
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The mixture of rising government spending on healthcare and extremely low U.S. tax-rates is unsustainable.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Social security may be in the menu of and/or solutions as well.
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not possible to solve U.S. budget problems without addressing the high cost of medical care and increasing taxes.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This seems obvious, but there is so much waste in health care that if we do it right, we'll very significantly reduce the costs of care.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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As long as taxes on those with incomes > $250K were already increased and revenues collected were insufficient.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rationalization is a better term than cuts. Equal health outcomes are possible with much less spending.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fiscal gap studies (e.g. Auerbach, Kotlikoff) show this is true unless, of course, health care costs fall dramatically--but why should they?
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Can't escape doing something about medical spending and even if we do, we will need more taxes on everyone
-see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The sooner we face up to this the better.
-see background information here |
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Cuts or less rapid growth? Keep benefits constant in real terms or relative to wages? If mean real growth, I agree need more tax on all.
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The key is controlling health care costs growth which does not necessarily imply reneging on Medicaid/Medicare benefits promises
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Arithmetic. And too unlikely that Congress will find cuts elsewhere such as farm and oil subsidies and DoD.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The main alternative is a substantial reduction in the growth rate of medical care costs.
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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