Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Health spending per recipient can rise above current levels. Reform is needed to make health spending increases affordable given GDP growth
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
The mixture of rising government spending on healthcare and extremely low U.S. tax-rates is unsustainable.
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Social security may be in the menu of and/or solutions as well.
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Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is not possible to solve U.S. budget problems without addressing the high cost of medical care and increasing taxes.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
This seems obvious, but there is so much waste in health care that if we do it right, we'll very significantly reduce the costs of care.
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
As long as taxes on those with incomes > $250K were already increased and revenues collected were insufficient.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Rationalization is a better term than cuts. Equal health outcomes are possible with much less spending.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Fiscal gap studies (e.g. Auerbach, Kotlikoff) show this is true unless, of course, health care costs fall dramatically--but why should they?
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Can't escape doing something about medical spending and even if we do, we will need more taxes on everyone
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The sooner we face up to this the better.
-see background information here |
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Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Cuts or less rapid growth? Keep benefits constant in real terms or relative to wages? If mean real growth, I agree need more tax on all.
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
The key is controlling health care costs growth which does not necessarily imply reneging on Medicaid/Medicare benefits promises
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Arithmetic. And too unlikely that Congress will find cuts elsewhere such as farm and oil subsidies and DoD.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
The main alternative is a substantial reduction in the growth rate of medical care costs.
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Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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