US

Healthcare and Taxes

Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Health spending per recipient can rise above current levels. Reform is needed to make health spending increases affordable given GDP growth
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The mixture of rising government spending on healthcare and extremely low U.S. tax-rates is unsustainable.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Social security may be in the menu of and/or solutions as well.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
It is not possible to solve U.S. budget problems without addressing the high cost of medical care and increasing taxes.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
This seems obvious, but there is so much waste in health care that if we do it right, we'll very significantly reduce the costs of care.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
As long as taxes on those with incomes > $250K were already increased and revenues collected were insufficient.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rationalization is a better term than cuts. Equal health outcomes are possible with much less spending.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Fiscal gap studies (e.g. Auerbach, Kotlikoff) show this is true unless, of course, health care costs fall dramatically--but why should they?
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Can't escape doing something about medical spending and even if we do, we will need more taxes on everyone
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The sooner we face up to this the better.
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Cuts or less rapid growth? Keep benefits constant in real terms or relative to wages? If mean real growth, I agree need more tax on all.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
The key is controlling health care costs growth which does not necessarily imply reneging on Medicaid/Medicare benefits promises
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Arithmetic. And too unlikely that Congress will find cuts elsewhere such as farm and oil subsidies and DoD.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The main alternative is a substantial reduction in the growth rate of medical care costs.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History