US

Healthcare

There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Linking health insurance to (current) employment distorts both labor market choices and health care decisions.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
We need consumers of healthcare to be *less* insulated from the price system, not more. The tax credit provides insulation and subsidy!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Creates distortion in both health and labor markets.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
There are giant distortions.
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Subsidizing health insurance through the tax system causes people to be "over-insured," and causes the system to cater to the over-insured.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Note that this is not a welfare statement. Many of the distortions are good (eg pooling benefits). And welfare requires a counterfactual.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Disagree
2
Bio/Vote History
This seems an indirect approach.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
just to name one distortion, dental insurance is often bought when few employees would pay that much with their own money.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Lowers the price of health insurance encouraging excessive health care spending. Contributes to rising h.c.costs. Benefits higher incomes.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
There are many distortions of great consequence created by the policy.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
Pretty clear directionally but question as to how impactful is the distortion in magnitude.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
likely increases labor supply and causes "too much" health care consumption for insured. i THINK the "job lock" literature didn't find much
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Financing health care through employers is crazy. It's essential to move to a system where people pay for health, with some gov help.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
All selective subsidies create distortions.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
10
Bio/Vote History
Tax prefs create job lock, prevent formation of a more competitive health insurance mkt, & discourage insurance coverage among young workers
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
One significant possible distortion is a reduction in labor mobility.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Lock in is inefficient and there is no good reason to use the tax code to subsidize health insurance purchases.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
1. Subsidizes health spending. 2. Increases other marginal tax rates. 3. Reduces job mobility.
-see background information here
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
The is much evidence on this point and alternative proposals that could remove distortions and provide better health care incentives.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Many well documented distortions, including differential treatment of people, and not available when people most need it.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
It likely distorts both health care decisions and the composition of total compensation.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Job lock distortion but not certain that tax preference is key factor making employers provide health care
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History
This is pretty basic, as is the fact that the distortions (econ speak for costs to society) are huge.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Disagree
6
Bio/Vote History
Yes the tax causes distortions but without Obamacare or some equivalent, we need health insurance provided by employers.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
It is apparent that linking insurance to employment is distortionary. Measuring the magnitude of these distortions is a challenge.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Disagree
9
Bio/Vote History