US

Greece’s Referendum

The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Greece may be better off without, the euro but political risks, especially with current government, would be great, so a no is very risky
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
I think that a exchange rate change may generate a more sustainable direction for the greek economy
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Not my area but I have found Meghir and Kashyap persuasive on this.
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
YES (lowering the chance of a needed devaluation) and NO (greater economic chaos and less structural reform) are both very bad for Greeks.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
In fact package is no longer on offer. A yes however creates hope of negotiating a better package w debt relief. No opens the door to chaos
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
There are so many possible scenarios in either case of a "yes" or "no" vote, no one has any idea of what can happen.
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Even better would be an immediate debt writeoff coupled with a new relation to the eurosystem that blocked further access to credit.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Yes means more of the same for Greece. No means a very uncertain future. But the Euro was a bad idea and should end as soon as possible.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Neither option is great. see my blog post for more complete analysis
-see background information here
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
The bailout package means austerity---which is bad for the median citizen. But the uncertainty from a "no" vote could be worse.
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Hard to know because involves primarily whether current incompetent government will survive, and whether new one can do better.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Voting no as a bargaining chip is not promising. There should be mutual gains from keeping Greece in the euro, if the will can be found.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
No good choice. If Yes Greece left with unsustainable debt burden. If No, Greece left with Tsipras-Varoufakis and possibly unplanned Grexit.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
More likely than not, I think, but far from certain.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
A yes vote leads Greece down a painful path. A no vote will lead down a much worse one, likely Grexit, legal battles, isolation, etc.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Both options are completely unspecified, and neither looks attractive. Both sides could use some negotiations training.
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History