The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Greece may be better off without, the euro but political risks, especially with current government, would be great, so a no is very risky
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
I think that a exchange rate change may generate a more sustainable direction for the greek economy
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Not my area but I have found Meghir and Kashyap persuasive on this.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
YES (lowering the chance of a needed devaluation) and NO (greater economic chaos and less structural reform) are both very bad for Greeks.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
In fact package is no longer on offer. A yes however creates hope of negotiating a better package w debt relief. No opens the door to chaos
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There are so many possible scenarios in either case of a "yes" or "no" vote, no one has any idea of what can happen.
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Even better would be an immediate debt writeoff coupled with a new relation to the eurosystem that blocked further access to credit.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yes means more of the same for Greece. No means a very uncertain future. But the Euro was a bad idea and should end as soon as possible.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Neither option is great. see my blog post for more complete analysis
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
The bailout package means austerity---which is bad for the median citizen. But the uncertainty from a "no" vote could be worse.
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to know because involves primarily whether current incompetent government will survive, and whether new one can do better.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Voting no as a bargaining chip is not promising. There should be mutual gains from keeping Greece in the euro, if the will can be found.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
No good choice. If Yes Greece left with unsustainable debt burden. If No, Greece left with Tsipras-Varoufakis and possibly unplanned Grexit.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
More likely than not, I think, but far from certain.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
A yes vote leads Greece down a painful path. A no vote will lead down a much worse one, likely Grexit, legal battles, isolation, etc.
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Both options are completely unspecified, and neither looks attractive. Both sides could use some negotiations training.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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