In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if — rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place — it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Greece's problems are political not just macroeconomic. Unclear whether default will help. Syriza's approach so far goes in wrong direction
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Banerjee
Abhijit Banerjee
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
The debt overhang is very costly. Domestic demand is also a problem. And the government is busy fire-fighting rather than making policy.
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Brunnermeier
Markus Brunnermeier
Princeton
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
One has to find the right/sustainable balance btw structural reforms that ultimately benefit the common man and some creative debt relief .
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Impossible to predict all the consequences and their effect on Greece.
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
It's a tough tradeoff. A fresh start would help after some forced restructuring of labor markets, the civil service, and tax collection.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Depends mainly on ancillary policies under the two scenarios which are now not possible to foresee.
Einav
Liran Einav
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Too many possible effects to know the net effect.
Finkelstein
Amy Finkelstein
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Disagree
7
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
They're in a hopeless situation now. But would they manage themselves better if they got out of the Euro than they did before they got in?
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Greece seems incapable of running a big enough primary surplus to satisfy Germany, and it is probably harmful to try. Autarky is better.
Hart
Oliver Hart
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
For Greece: default is a plus,exclusion from the EU banking system is a minus- it could lead to bank runs and political chaos. Net unclear.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Hoynes
Hilary Hoynes
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
Kaplan
Steven Kaplan
Chicago Booth
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
They will never repay all that is promised anyway & at some point the pain of avoiding default is too much. Exit will be awful in the SR.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Greek government debt held by non-Greeks (mostly the EU) is more than Greece's annual GDP.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
It all depends on how financial markets react---and this is hard to predict
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Too much uncertainty about response, whether leaves Eurozone, and impacts to have clear reading.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Samuelson
Larry Samuelson
Yale
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Greek economic institutions are notoriously ineffective; the troika program may provide the commitment needed to build working institutions.
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
So much would seem to depend on the difficult-to-predict reactions of various strategic players with diverse interests and agendas.
Shapiro
Carl Shapiro
Berkeley Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Shimer
Robert Shimer
University of Chicago
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
If Greece continues to service its debt, outcomes are reasonably forecastable. If it defaults, many different outcomes can happen.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History